NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	5.3 [777]		MVP	Eddie House (MIA): +30.3%
Toronto Raptors	79		Comeback	1.6 [423]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (TOR): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.08	-0.05	27	65%	0.34	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.04	0.02	12	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Dexter Pittman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	55%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	6	42%	0.02	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.04	4	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	10%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joey Dorsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	4	58%	0.05	2	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	10	44%	0.04	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.01
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	20	40%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.03
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Solomon Alabi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	7	44%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	13	58%	0.03	5	-0.15	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.7	28.2	16.4	21.4	1.8	28.4	125.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.1%

MIA +1.5%

MIA +5.3%

MIA +21.3%

TOR -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	18.9	14.7	15.5	114.1	90.8	105.7
season	16.0	15.1		109.0	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		111.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.9	21.2	20.1	18.4	18.9
TOR	16.1	13.0	15.8	13.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	58	60	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.04	23	-5	28	18.7	19.3	-0.59	13.7	16.7	-2.99
Jamaal Magloire	52	54	0.61	-0.11	0.73	-0.03	22	-4	26	18.9	18.8	0.17	13.7	16.3	-2.62
Eddie House	81	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.03	16	2	14	18.7	23.0	-4.35	14.5	17.2	-2.68
Mario Chalmers	57	59	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	3	12	19.2	18.2	1.01	13.5	17.1	-3.58
Dexter Pittman	17	17	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	9	0	18.1	19.1	-1.00	13.6	14.9	-1.28
James Jones	61	63	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	13	-8	19.5	17.1	2.42	14.9	14.0	0.94
Mike Bibby	28	28	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	15	-12	18.2	19.2	-1.01	17.1	13.5	3.58
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	35	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.03	0	18	-18	18.7	19.0	-0.25	16.5	13.5	3.02
Joel Anthony	36	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.05	-3	21	-24	18.9	18.8	0.05	16.3	13.5	2.82

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	65	65	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-19	20	13.9	16.9	-2.93	19.4	17.0	2.43
Joey Dorsey	59	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.14	-9	-9	0	14.5	15.0	-0.42	18.1	20.6	-2.49
Jerryd Bayless	75	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-10	2	14.8	13.9	0.88	19.1	17.6	1.49
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.09	-12	-6	-6	14.5	16.1	-1.63	18.6	20.7	-2.15
James Johnson	74	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-6	-6	15.0	13.1	1.88	19.3	16.0	3.28
Alexis Ajinca	29	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-8	-2	15.3	14.4	0.95	18.2	19.2	-0.96
Solomon Alabi	24	23	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.00	-16	-2	-14	15.4	14.4	0.96	19.7	18.5	1.15
Julian Wright	34	32	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.02	-24	6	-30	14.9	14.5	0.38	18.2	19.2	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 104, NOP 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
DET 93, ATL 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.4,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	93.2%
DEN 103, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.62,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.9%