NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	6.5 [528]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +20.1%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	2.5 [226]		LVP	Caron Butler (DAL): -15.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.09	0.02	17	67%	0.26	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	10	48%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	15	50%	0.10	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	3	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	14	47%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.01	11	42%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.08	0.01	9	60%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.15	-0.04	0.02	17	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	60%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dominique Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	15	59%	0.13	7	-0.15	9	100%	0.05
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.05	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	17	33%	-0.08	4	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	29.4	18.4	25.2	1.8	27.4	128.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +49.9%

DAL -5.8%

DAL -6.3%

DEN +16.8%

DAL -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.5	108.4	98.9	105.7
season	14.3	15.7		110.7	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.8	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	15.2	14.7	18.3	15.6
DAL	14.6	16.9	13.5	15.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	68	68	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.15	24	-13	37	15.2	16.6	-1.34	14.7	15.7	-0.98
J.R. Smith	66	66	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.10	22	-11	33	15.5	15.9	-0.33	14.8	15.5	-0.68
Melvin Ely	44	42	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.05	22	-11	33	14.9	16.3	-1.39	16.5	13.7	2.78
Ty Lawson	48	47	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.18	14	-3	17	16.2	15.1	1.12	14.6	15.4	-0.73
Carmelo Anthony	78	75	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	7	-3	15.5	16.2	-0.74	14.2	18.2	-3.93
Chauncey Billups	66	66	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.10	2	9	-7	15.5	15.9	-0.43	15.7	13.4	2.30
Shelden Williams	44	43	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.12	-11	22	-33	15.5	15.8	-0.33	14.1	15.8	-1.73
Gary Forbes	24	22	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	20	-29	16.8	15.2	1.55	14.8	15.1	-0.30
Arron Afflalo	37	36	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.07	-13	24	-37	16.6	15.0	1.67	16.2	14.3	1.90

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	62	66	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.13	11	-22	33	14.8	15.5	-0.68	16.0	14.9	1.06
Tyson Chandler	50	53	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.06	8	-19	27	15.2	14.7	0.52	15.3	16.1	-0.83
Caron Butler	64	67	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.07	5	-16	21	14.6	15.9	-1.25	16.1	14.4	1.71
DeShawn Stevenson	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	10.0	15.1	-5.11	25.0	15.5	9.47
Brian Cardinal	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	10.0	15.1	-5.11	25.0	15.5	9.47
Ian Mahinmi	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	10.0	15.1	-5.11	25.0	15.5	9.47
Dominique Jones	18	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-5	-1	12.6	15.6	-2.96	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Dirk Nowitzki	70	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-2	-7	15.8	12.4	3.41	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Jason Terry	69	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-5	-1	16.0	12.2	3.82	15.9	14.9	0.95
Jose Juan Barea	37	36	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.02	-21	10	-31	14.7	15.2	-0.49	14.9	16.1	-1.24
Brendan Haywood	33	33	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.05	-21	10	-31	15.4	14.8	0.66	14.9	16.0	-1.06
Shawn Marion	56	57	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.09	-22	11	-33	14.5	15.8	-1.35	15.4	16.1	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.62,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.24,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	94.2%
TOR 100, UTA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.2%
MIA 97, TOR 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.9%