NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	5.5 [802]		MVP	Aaron Gordon (DEN): +23.0%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.4 [907]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -21.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.19	0.04	-0.00	15	82%	0.29	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Bruce Brown	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.19	0.03	0.07	11	84%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.02	-0.06	19	55%	0.18	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	46%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jamal Murray	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	17	41%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Christian Braun	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	5	58%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.03	0.01	6	92%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.01	17	58%	0.15	1	-0.04	9	67%	-0.03
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	7	86%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	65%	0.11	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Cody Zeller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	12	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	19	48%	-0.03	7	-0.18	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.5	34.3	15.6	33.0	3.0	34.0	148.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.7%

MIA -10.0%

MIA -5.5%

DEN +23.8%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	14.4	117.4	103.3	113.4
season	14.7	15.1		116.6	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.1	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.8	14.2	15.7	18.3	16.4
MIA	16.5	14.0	13.7	16.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	80	80	0.84	-0.34	1.18	-0.01	29	-16	45	16.4	16.0	0.43	14.8	15.9	-1.13
Jamal Murray	80	82	0.63	-0.13	0.77	-0.01	22	-9	31	16.3	16.6	-0.25	15.4	11.1	4.30
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	69	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.10	16	-3	19	16.4	16.3	0.05	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Michael Porter Jr.	43	44	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	0	13	16.4	16.3	0.05	14.7	15.1	-0.44
Nikola Jokic	72	74	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	4	5	16.2	16.9	-0.74	14.6	16.4	-1.88
Bruce Brown	57	57	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	13	-13	16.2	16.7	-0.56	14.7	15.3	-0.52
Jeff Green	28	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.19	-7	20	-27	17.2	16.0	1.21	16.9	14.2	2.77
Christian Braun	29	28	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.18	-17	30	-47	16.2	16.4	-0.19	14.4	15.2	-0.83

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Zeller	8	9	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.04	5	-18	23	15.6	14.9	0.76	16.6	16.3	0.21
Haywood Highsmith	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-13	13	0.0	14.9	-14.93	2.0	16.5	-14.53
Kyle Lowry	63	64	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.18	3	-16	19	14.4	16.2	-1.81	16.2	16.7	-0.50
Caleb Martin	65	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-14	15	14.3	16.4	-2.14	15.6	18.3	-2.76
Max Strus	36	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.01	-7	-6	-1	15.0	14.9	0.06	17.1	15.9	1.17
Duncan Robinson	47	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-7	1	14.9	15.0	-0.13	16.5	16.2	0.33
Kevin Love	36	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	0	-13	16.0	14.2	1.75	16.3	16.4	-0.12
Jimmy Butler	87	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-4	-5	14.8	17.0	-2.18	16.6	12.2	4.41
Gabe Vincent	34	33	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.09	-21	8	-29	16.4	14.1	2.34	17.1	16.0	1.12
Bam Adebayo	84	83	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.07	-18	5	-23	14.9	15.6	-0.76	16.3	16.6	-0.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, OKC 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	95.0%
ORL 100, CHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.32,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	94.7%
ATL 111, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.15,0.34,0.31,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.5%