NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	92		Excitement	6.9 [528]		MVP	Jalen Brunson (NYK): +28.7%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	3.0 [803]		LVP	RJ Barrett (NYK): -24.7%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Brunson	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29	0.27	0.09	0.07	22	77%	0.47	3	-0.19	9	89%	0.08
Josh Hart	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Hartenstein	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles McBride	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Grimes	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	14	41%	-0.04	3	-0.10	9	89%	0.04
RJ Barrett	-0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.10	-0.13	0.01	10	37%	-0.11	3	-0.13	10	90%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.02	6	79%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.06	0.01	11	50%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	22	44%	0.05	0	0.00	11	91%	0.06
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	20	51%	0.09	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	8	44%	-0.04	2	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	2.8	25.2	16.4	28.2	2.8	43.2	150.7
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.9%

NYK -11.2%

MIA +8.1%

MIA +33.9%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	14.4	104.5	105.5	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		115.6	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.4		112.1	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.9	18.4	17.2	14.5	16.7
MIA	13.8	15.9	15.5	16.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Grimes	60	61	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-7	10	16.9	16.4	0.44	14.1	18.2	-4.02
Miles McBride	6	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.09	-7	3	-10	18.2	16.6	1.54	12.2	15.7	-3.46
Isaiah Hartenstein	33	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	0	-4	16.2	17.0	-0.78	16.0	15.1	0.86
Obi Toppin	23	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	3	-10	16.5	16.8	-0.34	17.5	14.8	2.68
Julius Randle	65	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-7	10	16.8	16.5	0.34	14.8	17.5	-2.68
Mitchell Robinson	51	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.29	-2	-2	0	17.8	15.2	2.61	16.0	14.8	1.20
Jalen Brunson	82	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-7	10	16.6	18.2	-1.54	15.7	12.2	3.46
Josh Hart	62	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	0	-4	16.4	17.6	-1.21	15.5	15.4	0.04
RJ Barrett	58	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	1	-6	16.3	17.6	-1.32	16.0	14.3	1.76

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	58	58	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-7	18	15.2	16.0	-0.83	16.9	16.4	0.55
Jimmy Butler	78	75	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.41	0	4	-4	15.3	16.5	-1.15	16.8	16.5	0.31
Max Strus	63	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	3	-2	15.1	16.3	-1.23	16.9	16.3	0.54
Kyle Lowry	61	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	16.0	14.4	1.55	16.0	18.2	-2.23
Bam Adebayo	75	72	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.45	-6	10	-16	15.8	13.9	1.86	16.1	19.6	-3.47
Cody Zeller	16	16	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.07	10	-6	16	13.9	15.8	-1.86	19.6	16.1	3.47
Duncan Robinson	28	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	1	2	16.3	15.1	1.23	16.3	16.9	-0.54
Caleb Martin	46	44	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	-1	6	15.7	15.2	0.50	17.3	16.1	1.18
Kevin Love	30	29	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	8	-12	15.1	15.7	-0.61	16.9	16.7	0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.89,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, UTA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	92.9%
CHI 79, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.95,0.9,1,1	92.8%
TOR 92, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.98,1	92.7%