NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	6.9 [439]		MVP	Bryon Russell (UTA): +20.1%
Utah Jazz	91		Comeback	3.2 [246]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -25.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	71%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	10	46%	-0.12	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.05
Avery Johnson	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.11	-0.13	-0.02	13	32%	-0.15	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.28,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.25,-0.28,-0.25	-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	23	53%	-0.03	6	-0.23	14	57%	-0.06

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.06	0.01	9	95%	0.24	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.10	-0.02	16	59%	0.23	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	13	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.02	-0.01	18	47%	0.03	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	9	42%	-0.05	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	-0.00	2	12%	-0.10	3	-0.12	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	26.5	15.7	30.2	1.8	39.2	140.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +47.8%

SAS -8.0%

UTA +16.2%

SAS -4.5%

SAS -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	15.7	16.4	15.2	95.5	101.1	101.7
season	15.5	16.3		101.6	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.4		100.6	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.2	18.4	17.0	15.0	15.7
UTA	16.2	18.5	15.8	15.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	33	33	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.14	5	-11	16	15.3	16.0	-0.75	17.2	16.0	1.18
Samaki Walker	16	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-4	2	15.4	15.8	-0.45	15.9	16.5	-0.68
Chucky Brown	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-2	-2	16.6	15.3	1.29	15.5	16.9	-1.50
Malik Rose	19	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-3	0	16.6	15.5	1.06	18.9	15.7	3.16
Jaren Jackson	62	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-7	8	15.2	16.9	-1.65	16.2	16.9	-0.63
Mario Elie	27	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	2	-10	16.7	15.3	1.43	17.3	16.0	1.29
Terry Porter	50	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.37	1	-7	8	14.8	17.0	-2.24	16.3	16.6	-0.25
Tim Duncan	81	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.35	0	-6	6	15.6	17.4	-1.79	16.3	18.1	-1.86
David Robinson	64	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	1	-8	16.1	14.8	1.31	16.4	16.5	-0.09
Avery Johnson	62	63	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.28	-13	7	-20	16.1	14.9	1.17	16.0	17.5	-1.55

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Stockton	64	64	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-7	20	16.0	17.4	-1.34	16.8	13.1	3.70
Bryon Russell	64	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.34	8	-2	10	16.7	15.7	1.10	16.6	13.6	2.92
Karl Malone	73	74	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	2	2	16.2	17.6	-1.42	15.1	18.9	-3.76
Greg Ostertag	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.06	8	-2	10	16.2	16.6	-0.47	17.8	14.1	3.74
Howard Eisley	52	52	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	5	-4	17.4	15.1	2.30	15.9	15.6	0.30
Jeff Hornacek	64	62	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	8	-10	16.0	17.4	-1.39	14.6	18.4	-3.88
Olden Polynice	50	48	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.26	-5	11	-16	16.6	16.2	0.47	14.3	17.4	-3.15
Scott Padgett	26	26	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.01	1	5	-4	15.7	16.7	-1.10	13.2	16.8	-3.55
Pete Chilcutt	17	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	4	-2	17.6	16.2	1.42	18.9	15.1	3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.24,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 92, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.98,1	93.3%
ORL 85, WAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.99,1	92.5%
DAL 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,1	92.5%