NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	126		Excitement	7.0 [400]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +27.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	115		Comeback	11.4 [57]		LVP	CJ McCollum (POR): -9.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.27	0.15	0.09	-0.03	22	69%	0.33	5	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Monte Morris	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.10	0.18	0.01	16	59%	0.29	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
JaMychal Green	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	67%	0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.16	-0.04	0.01	19	68%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	5	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Aaron Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.04	8	65%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Markus Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	3	150%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.01	9	67%	0.20	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	-0.00	3	137%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Norman Powell	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	13	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	20	57%	0.12	5	-0.12	9	100%	0.06
Nassir Little	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Leaf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keljin Blevins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	7	72%	0.10	5	-0.19	4	75%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.08	0.02	21	48%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.3	26.5	15.4	32.7	2.8	30.5	137.6
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +9.9%

DEN +6.6%

DEN +1.9%

DEN +31.1%

DEN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	15.0	14.5	14.4	128.6	118.6	111.3
season	15.0	14.9		116.0	116.9
opponent	14.2	14.4		115.1	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.5	13.4	14.0	20.4	15.0
POR	13.7	13.8	14.8	16.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaMychal Green	47	45	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.20	22	-11	33	15.8	14.3	1.43	14.1	14.8	-0.71
Monte Morris	68	66	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.15	19	-8	27	14.9	15.3	-0.35	14.5	14.5	0.05
Nikola Jokic	74	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-4	19	14.8	15.8	-1.08	14.4	15.0	-0.69
Austin Rivers	79	80	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.19	5	6	-1	15.6	12.7	2.90	14.6	14.1	0.55
Aaron Gordon	69	68	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	5	1	14.7	15.7	-0.95	14.6	14.2	0.39
Markus Howard	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	9	-7	14.4	15.1	-0.74	15.4	14.4	0.96
Shaquille Harrison	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	11	-11	1.0	15.2	-14.16	6.0	14.6	-8.60
Facundo Campazzo	50	49	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	13	-15	14.0	16.1	-2.08	14.2	14.9	-0.71
Paul Millsap	23	22	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	15	-19	16.5	14.6	1.90	15.5	14.2	1.21
Michael Porter Jr.	68	69	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	19	-27	15.1	14.8	0.27	14.6	14.2	0.42

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	17	18	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-14	17	15.0	14.4	0.59	17.7	14.4	3.24
Keljin Blevins	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	12.0	14.5	-2.54	19.0	15.0	4.02
Nassir Little	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	12.0	14.5	-2.54	19.0	15.0	4.02
T.J. Leaf	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	12.0	14.5	-2.54	19.0	15.0	4.02
Anfernee Simons	46	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-3	-5	13.5	15.5	-1.97	12.8	17.0	-4.22
Robert Covington	78	79	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-8	5	14.2	15.7	-1.45	15.3	13.8	1.53
Norman Powell	65	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-9	7	14.4	14.7	-0.21	15.6	14.0	1.63
CJ McCollum	76	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	-3	-5	15.0	12.8	2.24	15.6	13.1	2.43
Jusuf Nurkic	68	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	-2	-7	14.9	13.5	1.42	14.5	16.1	-1.60
Carmelo Anthony	45	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	6	-23	14.8	14.3	0.49	14.5	15.5	-1.06
Damian Lillard	87	89	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	14.5	14.9	-0.43	15.0	14.9	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.01,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 92, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.22,0.07,0.1,0.01,0,0	93.0%
DET 81, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.06,0.04,0	91.3%
PHX 104, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	91.1%