NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	5.8 [664]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +20.5%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	26.9 [58]		LVP	Luther Head (HOU): -24.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.06	0.14	-0.01	13	63%	0.25	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.02	4	100%	0.13	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.07	-0.00	-0.03	6	92%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	8	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.03	0.01	16	49%	0.08	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	13	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	25	48%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	7	36%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	21	39%	-0.11	1	-0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	8	33%	-0.09	4	-0.15	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	26.7	14.8	23.2	2.5	25.6	118.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +51.8%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +1.4%

HOU -8.8%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.4	16.4	15.4	101.1	93.3	104.5
season	16.2	15.6		107.5	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.2	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.0	15.9	12.6	15.4	15.4
HOU	14.8	16.8	17.4	16.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	43	44	0.96	-0.46	1.41	0.13	28	-20	48	15.2	15.6	-0.33	17.2	15.6	1.62
Manu Ginobili	66	65	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	6	-4	15.7	14.6	1.11	16.0	17.6	-1.69
Bruce Bowen	68	68	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	3	2	15.2	16.0	-0.74	16.2	17.0	-0.76
Beno Udrih	36	34	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.10	13	-5	18	14.4	16.1	-1.68	17.4	15.8	1.54
Michael Finley	43	41	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	-2	12	14.7	16.0	-1.34	17.6	15.4	2.14
Francisco Elson	53	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	4	0	15.4	15.4	-0.02	15.8	17.1	-1.31
Tony Parker	55	56	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.36	-5	13	-18	16.1	14.4	1.68	15.8	17.4	-1.54
Fabricio Oberto	11	11	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.04	2	6	-4	14.5	15.5	-1.08	17.5	16.3	1.28
Tim Duncan	69	70	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.31	-12	20	-32	15.8	14.2	1.62	16.3	17.0	-0.74
Brent Barry	11	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.01	-7	15	-22	16.7	15.2	1.50	15.3	16.6	-1.31

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	21	20	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.02	5	-13	18	15.6	16.7	-1.11	17.9	14.7	3.26
Shane Battier	72	72	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.29	14	-22	36	16.0	18.1	-2.11	15.7	14.4	1.25
Juwan Howard	46	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	-3	-2	16.1	16.7	-0.60	15.2	15.6	-0.47
Tracy McGrady	74	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-4	0	16.2	17.2	-1.01	15.5	14.9	0.57
Kirk Snyder	16	17	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.14	-18	10	-28	18.3	16.0	2.30	14.1	15.7	-1.59
Luther Head	44	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-5	2	16.7	16.1	0.60	15.6	15.2	0.47
Rafer Alston	78	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	0	-8	15.8	20.5	-4.71	15.1	17.5	-2.33
Scott Padgett	31	31	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.22	-8	0	-8	18.1	15.6	2.51	15.7	15.3	0.41
Yao Ming	68	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	5	-18	16.9	15.1	1.76	14.8	17.3	-2.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.79,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.22,0.07,0.1,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, SAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.88,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.1,0,0,0	91.8%
DET 81, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.06,0.04,0	91.2%
PHX 104, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	90.8%