NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	81		Excitement	6.4 [544]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +9.3%
Chicago Bulls	74		Comeback	16.9 [61]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -20.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.08	-0.02	17	52%	0.15	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.13	0.01	0.06	16	62%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.01	18	44%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.01	15	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Webber	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	15	43%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.06
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.09	-0.03	22	40%	-0.06	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	16	40%	-0.10	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.8	29.1	18.7	26.2	3.7	35.0	138.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +39.6%

DET +1.4%

CHI -12.8%

DET +22.1%

CHI -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	18.7	14.6	15.4	93.1	86.0	104.5
season	16.8	14.5		106.1	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.1	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.6	19.3	17.7	18.1	18.7
CHI	14.7	12.5	16.6	14.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	73	71	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.22	19	-12	31	18.3	21.0	-2.74	14.7	13.8	0.93
Tayshaun Prince	77	76	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.26	17	-10	27	18.5	19.9	-1.35	15.1	10.7	4.38
Antonio McDyess	55	54	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.25	16	-9	25	18.6	18.9	-0.37	14.5	14.7	-0.19
Chauncey Billups	76	76	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-4	15	18.7	18.9	-0.24	14.9	12.1	2.79
Richard Hamilton	82	81	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	0	7	18.5	22.0	-3.50	14.5	15.4	-0.88
Ronald Murray	5	5	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	7	-7	22.0	18.5	3.50	15.4	14.5	0.88
Jason Maxiell	6	6	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	11	-15	15.5	18.9	-3.44	15.0	14.5	0.46
Lindsey Hunter	11	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	11	-15	18.9	18.7	0.24	12.1	14.9	-2.79
Carlos Delfino	10	10	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	17	-27	19.9	18.5	1.35	10.7	15.1	-4.38
Chris Webber	40	41	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	0.06	-17	24	-41	20.2	17.4	2.73	14.3	14.8	-0.48

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	15	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-8	9	14.1	14.7	-0.53	17.4	19.0	-1.58
Thabo Sefolosha	9	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-4	1	12.0	14.9	-2.87	13.0	19.6	-6.61
Andres Nocioni	31	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-8	9	14.3	14.7	-0.44	19.7	18.2	1.47
P.J. Brown	67	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-4	1	15.0	13.0	2.01	19.1	17.4	1.69
Ben Wallace	71	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	14.3	16.1	-1.81	18.6	19.0	-0.36
Kirk Hinrich	84	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.31	-5	-2	-3	14.5	17.5	-3.00	18.9	14.0	4.87
Ben Gordon	79	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	-1	-5	14.9	10.4	4.51	19.4	12.7	6.73
Luol Deng	74	74	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.26	-16	9	-25	14.7	13.9	0.76	18.3	20.8	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, CLE 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.19,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.02,0	91.8%
BOS 88, CHI 77	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.17,0.1,0.06,0,0,0	91.8%
CHA 97, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.04,0.01,0.08,0	91.4%