NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	97		Excitement	7.2 [415]		MVP	Jeremy Lamb (CHA): +19.2%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	20.7 [79]		LVP	James Johnson (MIA): -23.5%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lamb	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.11	0.00	12	62%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kemba Walker	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	18	53%	0.19	0	0.00	9	89%	0.04
Marco Belinelli	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	60%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	14	40%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ramon Sessions	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	0.00	9	15%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	70%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.01	11	69%	0.12	4	-0.13	7	57%	-0.03
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.00	9	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.02	12	52%	0.07	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.02	-0.06	14	33%	0.01	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	16	38%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.10	-0.00	6	0%	-0.14	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.5	31.2	15.4	25.5	2.3	29.7	135.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -2.8%

CHA +12.9%

CHA +3.0%

CHA +38.8%

MIA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.3	14.8	100.0	93.8	107.7
season	15.1	15.4		107.9	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.8		105.9	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.7	14.5	13.8	14.5	14.4
MIA	14.7	14.3	16.2	16.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lamb	43	44	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.36	9	-3	12	15.0	13.8	1.21	15.6	15.1	0.58
Ramon Sessions	33	34	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	-3	12	14.8	14.1	0.72	15.8	15.1	0.69
Marco Belinelli	58	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	0	6	14.2	14.6	-0.37	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Cody Zeller	45	47	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	1	4	14.6	14.2	0.43	15.5	15.2	0.33
Spencer Hawes	41	41	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	2	2	14.5	14.3	0.20	15.4	15.3	0.12
Marvin Williams	69	68	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	4	-2	14.1	15.0	-0.93	15.1	15.9	-0.77
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	57	58	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	4	-2	14.4	14.3	0.04	15.8	14.6	1.18
Nicolas Batum	65	64	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	7	-8	14.1	14.9	-0.75	15.0	15.9	-0.94
Kemba Walker	64	63	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	9	-12	14.1	14.8	-0.72	15.1	15.8	-0.69
Roy Hibbert	10	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	9	-12	14.2	14.4	-0.19	14.1	15.4	-1.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	41	40	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.01	7	-13	20	15.4	15.2	0.16	14.0	14.6	-0.55
Rodney McGruder	42	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	-4	2	15.7	15.0	0.65	13.0	15.3	-2.29
Goran Dragic	68	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-12	18	15.1	15.9	-0.77	14.6	13.7	0.92
Willie Reed	44	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-1	-4	15.9	14.9	1.00	13.9	14.7	-0.78
Justise Winslow	64	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-3	0	15.5	14.9	0.67	14.3	14.6	-0.33
Hassan Whiteside	53	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-5	4	14.9	15.9	-1.00	15.0	13.6	1.34
James Johnson	47	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	5	-16	15.3	15.3	0.04	14.2	14.5	-0.32
Dion Waiters	69	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-3	0	14.8	16.6	-1.81	15.0	12.7	2.33
Tyler Johnson	57	57	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.28	-18	12	-30	15.6	14.9	0.71	14.4	14.3	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.04,0.01,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, SAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.88,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.1,0,0,0	92.3%
SAS 102, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0	91.7%
DAL 100, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.83,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.17,0.32,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	91.6%