NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	104		Excitement	6.8 [435]		MVP	Steve Nash (PHX): +23.5%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	6.6 [101]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -10.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.24	0.18	0.09	0.03	15	88%	0.35	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.03	0.14	-0.01	13	52%	0.19	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jared Dudley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.01	6	53%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Lou Amundson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	5	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Jarron Collins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	41%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.01	9	59%	0.04	3	-0.10	9	44%	-0.11
Grant Hill	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	11	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	17	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	31%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	11	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	18	49%	0.02	4	-0.13	11	82%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	30.8	17.5	26.2	1.6	30.2	136.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +65.8%

MIA -4.3%

MIA -1.5%

MIA -9.5%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	15.3	109.5	102.1	106.0
season	14.4	16.2		113.5	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.9	15.9	13.0	15.0	14.1
MIA	14.3	17.7	15.9	18.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	73	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	4	0	13.6	15.5	-1.87	16.8	14.9	1.94
Amar'e Stoudemire	78	77	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.34	3	5	-2	14.2	13.5	0.72	16.2	17.5	-1.28
Jared Dudley	46	45	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-3	14	14.5	13.6	0.93	16.8	16.1	0.68
Jarron Collins	16	16	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	-3	14	11.2	14.6	-3.46	19.6	15.8	3.86
Channing Frye	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	7	-6	14.6	13.4	1.26	16.5	16.3	0.17
Goran Dragic	21	22	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	1	6	13.4	14.3	-0.88	18.7	15.7	2.95
Steve Nash	74	72	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.20	1	7	-6	14.3	13.4	0.88	15.7	18.7	-2.95
Grant Hill	71	69	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	7	-6	14.2	13.7	0.53	15.8	18.3	-2.53
Lou Amundson	45	43	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.13	1	7	-6	14.2	13.9	0.26	15.6	17.2	-1.60

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	57	59	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.25	11	-19	30	16.2	16.7	-0.50	14.4	13.6	0.77
Dorell Wright	30	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-11	14	16.4	16.4	-0.04	14.1	14.1	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	26	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-4	0	18.3	15.7	2.60	12.8	14.6	-1.74
Joel Anthony	13	13	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.15	-12	4	-16	15.6	16.6	-0.94	10.5	14.6	-4.08
James Jones	12	11	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	2	-12	22.3	15.6	6.77	11.5	14.4	-2.95
Udonis Haslem	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-5	2	16.5	16.3	0.10	14.1	13.9	0.20
Mario Chalmers	68	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-4	0	15.7	18.3	-2.60	14.6	12.8	1.74
Michael Beasley	46	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-2	-4	17.4	15.5	1.85	14.0	14.1	-0.08
Quentin Richardson	73	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	15.8	18.7	-2.89	14.4	12.9	1.46
Dwyane Wade	74	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	0	-8	15.8	18.7	-2.95	14.5	12.4	2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.76,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 113, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.78,0.72,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.3,0.24,0.13,0.1,0,0,0,0	92.3%
SAS 92, BOS 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.78,0.66,0.48,0.61,0.53,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.2%
MIL 101, CHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.75,0.57,0.63,0.47,0.2,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0	92.0%