NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	118		Excitement	11.5 [30]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +29.5%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	5.1 [225]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -31.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29	0.07	0.22	-0.00	11	56%	0.29	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.01	0.03	10	79%	0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Donte DiVincenzo	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	7	59%	0.16	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.19
Marvin Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.01	3	83%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.2,-0.13,-0.09,-0.15,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	28	55%	0.22	4	-0.16	9	100%	0.07
Wesley Matthews	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	13	48%	0.07	4	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
George Hill	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	11	55%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.29	0.15	0.13	-0.01	13	77%	0.33	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.25	0.25	-0.03	0.29	0.00	11	50%	0.37	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.21	0.19	0.04	0.01	13	81%	0.34	1	-0.12	6	100%	0.04
Derrick Jones Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	43%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.11	-0.12	0.00	12	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	17	41%	-0.11	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.25,-0.19,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.05	-0.25	0.01	15	47%	-0.10	3	-0.21	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.4	3.3	29.3	14.8	31.3	3.3	35.3	1.8	18.6	165.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +2.3%

MIL +7.2%

MIL +9.3%

MIL +30.8%

MIL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.8	14.2	112.4	108.5	109.6
season	13.2	14.7		111.0	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.1		108.9	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	12.4	13.8	14.6	17.1	15.1	14.4
MIA	14.3	16.2	14.8	18.0	16.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	49	53	1.21	-0.71	1.92	0.57	22	-19	41	14.1	14.6	-0.54	17.4	14.1	3.34
Brook Lopez	80	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-8	19	14.5	14.0	0.44	16.3	14.0	2.36
Eric Bledsoe	81	80	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-10	23	14.1	15.3	-1.19	15.9	15.2	0.76
Khris Middleton	93	94	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	14.9	10.6	4.28	15.9	14.7	1.24
Kyle Korver	12	10	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.15	10	-7	17	12.9	14.6	-1.64	13.0	16.1	-3.05
Giannis Antetokounmpo	27	26	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	1	1	11.1	15.5	-4.44	15.5	15.9	-0.40
George Hill	63	63	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	6	-9	14.3	14.4	-0.10	15.3	16.4	-1.10
Pat Connaughton	26	29	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.03	-8	11	-19	15.4	14.0	1.40	14.3	16.3	-1.95
Marvin Williams	36	36	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.05	-12	15	-27	15.1	14.0	1.13	14.2	16.6	-2.38
Wesley Matthews	49	48	-0.39	0.89	-1.27	0.35	-25	28	-53	15.0	13.8	1.18	15.6	15.9	-0.25

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	2	2	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.07	0	-3	3	0.5	16.1	-15.56	9.5	14.5	-4.97
Kelly Olynyk	21	18	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.08	-2	-1	-1	14.0	16.2	-2.14	14.6	14.3	0.22
Andre Iguodala	50	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	1	-5	14.0	17.3	-3.30	12.5	16.0	-3.45
Kendrick Nunn	17	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	4	-11	15.4	15.8	-0.49	12.4	14.7	-2.34
Goran Dragic	79	78	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-2	1	16.2	14.6	1.52	14.5	14.0	0.55
Duncan Robinson	80	81	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.37	6	-9	15	15.7	15.9	-0.21	13.6	17.0	-3.46
Jimmy Butler	74	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.55	4	-7	11	16.0	15.2	0.78	15.6	11.7	3.86
Jae Crowder	56	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	-1	-1	17.3	14.0	3.26	15.9	12.7	3.27
Bam Adebayo	86	87	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	1	-5	16.0	14.6	1.37	14.5	13.6	0.98
Tyler Herro	65	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	2	-7	15.9	15.6	0.33	14.3	14.5	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.8,0.81,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.25,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.54,0.69,0.45,0.32,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 98, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.67,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.33,0.15,0.06,0.04,0	88.4%
POR 94, SAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.61,0.55,0.43,0.59,0.46,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.27,0	88.4%
CLE 89, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.46,0.3,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.61,0.47,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.17,0.02,0	88.2%