NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	8.3 [274]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +19.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	112		Comeback	2.7 [311]		LVP	Enes Kanter (POR): -12.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2	0.17	0.06	0.03	20	67%	0.25	2	-0.06	11	100%	0.10
Gary Harris	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.13	-0.01	14	47%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.04	-0.01	10	75%	0.25	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.05
Will Barton	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.15	-0.02	0.16	-0.01	14	39%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.01	15	62%	0.20	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Mason Plumlee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Malik Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	46%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.07	0.03	20	63%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	0.00	9	89%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.01	10	70%	0.18	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,0,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	22	51%	0.18	2	-0.07	11	73%	-0.05
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Enes Kanter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	5	42%	0.00	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.9	2.7	30.6	16.6	26.7	3.3	45.4	155.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +6.9%

DEN +14.7%

DEN +8.1%

DEN +11.8%

DEN +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	14.3	122.1	119.1	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		112.0	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.6		109.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.2	14.5	13.9	18.8	15.6
POR	14.2	16.8	16.1	12.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	75	75	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.23	17	-13	30	15.9	14.3	1.53	14.6	16.0	-1.36
Gary Harris	71	72	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-9	22	15.7	15.1	0.58	14.3	16.8	-2.43
Paul Millsap	80	82	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-8	20	15.6	15.2	0.43	15.0	14.5	0.48
Jamal Murray	74	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-6	16	15.7	15.0	0.78	14.6	15.9	-1.25
Will Barton	58	57	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	9	-14	16.4	14.2	2.24	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Torrey Craig	36	35	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	1	2	13.8	16.6	-2.78	14.4	15.2	-0.82
Monte Morris	21	20	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	9	-14	15.0	15.7	-0.78	15.9	14.6	1.25
Malik Beasley	28	26	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	13	-22	14.9	15.9	-0.99	16.6	14.3	2.30
Mason Plumlee	32	29	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.12	-16	20	-36	15.3	15.7	-0.42	16.0	14.4	1.57

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Collins	38	39	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.23	10	-14	24	15.4	14.6	0.89	17.1	14.5	2.66
Seth Curry	51	54	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.41	16	-20	36	15.3	14.5	0.74	15.7	15.4	0.34
Evan Turner	23	23	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-8	12	16.6	14.4	2.18	16.4	15.3	1.10
Rodney Hood	46	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.26	7	-11	18	14.5	15.3	-0.73	15.8	15.3	0.46
Maurice Harkless	37	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	8	-20	15.2	14.8	0.41	13.7	16.7	-2.99
Enes Kanter	60	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	8	-20	14.7	15.3	-0.55	14.8	16.8	-1.92
Damian Lillard	71	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	4	-12	14.4	16.6	-2.18	15.3	16.4	-1.10
CJ McCollum	76	77	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.30	-10	6	-16	14.8	15.4	-0.59	15.8	14.5	1.31
Al-Farouq Aminu	68	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.22	-15	11	-26	14.8	15.3	-0.49	15.7	15.1	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.22,0.13,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.37,0.24,0.1,0	91.9%
PHX 99, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.3,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.26,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.11,0.22,0.04,0	91.9%
UTA 103, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.38,0.39,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.05,0	91.5%