NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	7.6 [329]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +17.7%
New Jersey Nets	90		Comeback	2.5 [492]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -25.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.18	0.04	0.15	0.01	20	58%	0.28	4	-0.11	12	67%	-0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	7	53%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	8	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	5	56%	0.03	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Nene	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.14	0.01	-0.01	23	38%	0.02	4	-0.13	6	50%	-0.03

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	10	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	24	51%	0.18	4	-0.19	9	89%	0.02
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.11	0.01	17	45%	-0.06	4	-0.15	6	83%	0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.25	-0.25	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	10	24%	-0.16	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	3.7	30.5	20.4	30.4	3.5	32.6	147.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.6%

DEN +8.0%

DEN +4.3%

DEN +2.2%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NJN	NBA	DEN	NJN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	15.4	94.9	90.9	104.5
season	14.0	15.4		105.8	103.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		103.8	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	14.3	13.0	17.0	14.6
NJN	16.0	12.0	18.3	12.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	59	61	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.28	23	-19	42	14.2	15.2	-0.99	16.0	12.0	4.02
Marcus Camby	74	75	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.32	14	-10	24	14.1	16.1	-2.05	15.2	12.4	2.76
Steve Blake	75	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-6	16	14.7	14.2	0.50	14.3	15.2	-0.88
Allen Iverson	91	92	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	1	2	14.4	17.2	-2.90	14.6	13.0	1.62
Nene	65	66	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	5	-6	14.2	15.4	-1.26	14.9	13.6	1.30
Eduardo Najera	47	46	-0.09	0.58	-0.67	0.12	-7	11	-18	15.9	13.4	2.49	13.7	15.2	-1.51
Linas Kleiza	61	59	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.28	-14	18	-32	15.2	13.6	1.55	12.9	16.9	-4.02
J.R. Smith	23	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.08	-8	12	-20	14.8	14.5	0.26	13.0	14.9	-1.99

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Williams	24	23	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.04	12	-16	28	13.7	14.8	-1.11	16.0	14.1	1.90
Josh Boone	15	14	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-9	14	13.2	14.7	-1.54	15.6	14.4	1.15
Antoine Wright	14	15	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.09	6	-10	16	13.4	14.7	-1.34	17.9	14.0	3.87
Eddie House	42	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.33	9	-13	22	12.3	16.1	-3.77	15.9	13.5	2.42
Bostjan Nachbar	37	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-5	6	15.0	14.2	0.75	14.4	14.7	-0.22
Vince Carter	75	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-3	2	14.5	14.4	0.12	14.3	15.5	-1.16
Jason Collins	39	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	10	-24	16.6	13.1	3.44	13.3	15.4	-2.12
Mikki Moore	82	82	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	4	-12	14.7	13.5	1.18	14.4	15.4	-1.00
Richard Jefferson	85	83	-0.69	0.20	-0.89	-0.34	-12	8	-20	14.8	13.0	1.75	14.1	17.1	-3.03
Jason Kidd	82	82	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.34	-18	14	-32	14.6	14.0	0.61	14.3	16.1	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.37,0.24,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 102, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.27,0	92.6%
PHX 111, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.22,0.26,0	91.9%
DEN 116, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.22,0.13,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.02,0	91.9%