NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	111		Excitement	7.9 [298]		MVP	Joe Johnson (PHX): +30.8%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	2.5 [269]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -37.8%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.31	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.31	0.12	0.17	-0.02	15	76%	0.39	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.23	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,0.09,0.23	0.02	0.21	0.00	23	60%	0.37	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Jim Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	3	133%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	12	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	10	68%	0.09	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Steven Hunter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.17	-0.00	11	68%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.06	-0.02	22	58%	0.19	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	13	52%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.15	-0.01	12	42%	-0.18	3	-0.12	12	25%	-0.16
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.33,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.22	-0.16	0.00	17	34%	-0.17	6	-0.20	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.5	28.3	18.5	26.4	3.4	41.4	149.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +62.7%

PHX +13.2%

SAS -23.1%

SAS -3.7%

PHX +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	SAS	NBA	PHX	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	17.1	15.5	122.0	114.0	104.0
season	13.5	16.3		112.9	105.8
opponent	15.6	16.0		98.4	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.2	13.7	14.0	17.1	14.2
SAS	20.5	15.1	16.5	16.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amar'e Stoudemire	69	73	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.33	16	-11	27	14.4	13.5	0.93	16.7	18.4	-1.70
Joe Johnson	78	81	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.37	9	-4	13	13.9	16.0	-2.09	17.2	16.2	0.94
Shawn Marion	83	86	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.30	11	-6	17	13.9	17.6	-3.75	17.6	11.0	6.56
Steve Nash	78	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-6	17	13.7	17.5	-3.79	17.3	15.7	1.60
Quentin Richardson	75	77	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	2	1	14.8	11.6	3.14	17.1	16.8	0.30
Jim Jackson	42	41	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	13	-21	14.8	13.7	1.07	16.3	17.7	-1.38
Steven Hunter	30	27	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.08	-17	22	-39	14.6	14.0	0.58	16.5	17.3	-0.82

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	22	22	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.09	6	-11	17	16.0	17.4	-1.39	16.0	13.6	2.42
Nazr Mohammed	47	44	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.07	-2	-3	1	18.1	16.0	2.19	13.2	15.1	-1.94
Manu Ginobili	71	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-8	11	16.9	17.5	-0.51	14.2	14.1	0.09
Robert Horry	65	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-8	11	15.8	20.0	-4.25	14.2	14.2	-0.03
Brent Barry	29	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	2	-9	17.7	16.8	0.86	13.4	14.6	-1.13
Bruce Bowen	86	84	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	1	-7	17.0	18.3	-1.32	14.5	11.3	3.17
Tony Parker	71	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.26	-11	6	-17	17.4	16.0	1.39	13.6	16.0	-2.42
Tim Duncan	74	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.29	-11	6	-17	17.5	15.4	2.13	14.8	11.7	3.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.22,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0	92.3%
HOU 108, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.64,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	92.3%
DEN 94, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.37,0.24,0.1,0	91.9%