NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	6.2 [590]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +16.8%
New Jersey Nets	86		Comeback	1.8 [470]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -21.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17	0.13	0.05	0.02	11	75%	0.20	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	12	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	12	50%	0.11	2	-0.04	14	36%	-0.13
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	73%	0.12	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	39%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.03	5	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.03	11	32%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	9	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	15	56%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	8	69%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	2	43%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	64%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.18	-0.06	-0.04	15	35%	-0.05	6	-0.15	4	75%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.08	0.02	13	32%	-0.14	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.4	29.4	19.7	25.2	3.7	40.5	150.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.1%

NJN -0.6%

MIA +9.9%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	16.9	14.2	15.4	101.1	92.5	104.5
season	16.0	15.4		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.8	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	17.4	17.0	17.9	16.9
NJN	13.3	14.7	16.5	12.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	78	78	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.36	14	-7	21	16.6	18.9	-2.28	14.0	15.3	-1.24
Shaquille O'Neal	43	44	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.11	18	-11	29	16.4	17.4	-1.04	15.4	13.1	2.29
Udonis Haslem	67	68	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-4	15	15.8	20.0	-4.28	13.5	16.2	-2.75
Eddie Jones	80	81	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	-2	11	16.6	19.0	-2.39	14.5	12.7	1.79
James Posey	71	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	-1	9	16.8	17.4	-0.65	15.2	11.1	4.11
Gary Payton	43	44	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.26	-8	15	-23	17.5	16.4	1.15	12.7	15.6	-2.89
Antoine Walker	37	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.25	-9	16	-25	19.8	15.0	4.78	14.0	14.4	-0.42
Michael Doleac	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	10	-13	16.7	17.0	-0.22	14.0	14.3	-0.26
Alonzo Mourning	30	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	12	-17	18.1	16.4	1.70	14.4	14.2	0.19

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Boone	26	23	0.25	-0.75	0.99	-0.05	10	-17	27	13.7	14.4	-0.69	16.6	17.0	-0.48
Marcus Williams	24	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-9	11	14.5	14.1	0.31	17.0	16.9	0.10
Bostjan Nachbar	48	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.21	5	-12	17	13.0	15.5	-2.53	15.0	18.8	-3.85
Clifford Robinson	33	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-3	-1	15.8	13.3	2.47	17.0	16.9	0.11
Eddie House	35	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-7	7	13.1	14.9	-1.87	16.9	17.0	-0.11
Jason Collins	38	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-2	-3	13.8	14.5	-0.78	18.1	16.1	1.97
Jason Kidd	78	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-2	-3	14.0	15.5	-1.48	17.0	16.5	0.54
Vince Carter	79	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	2	-11	14.3	13.9	0.35	16.9	17.1	-0.26
Richard Jefferson	63	64	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.12	-13	6	-19	14.4	13.8	0.58	17.4	15.9	1.48
Mikki Moore	41	44	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.07	-16	9	-25	16.0	12.8	3.26	17.4	16.5	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	94.3%
NYK 100, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.28,0.41,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.04,0,0	94.1%
MIN 108, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.04,0	93.7%