NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	95		Excitement	5.2 [773]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +12.3%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	2.1 [409]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -13.9%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.00	18	63%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	19	61%	0.10	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	4	20%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Lucious Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Todd MacCulloch	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	3	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.02	-0.02	9	22%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	0.00	5	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	60%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	19	59%	0.07	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	9	48%	-0.01	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	6	50%	-0.04	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	27.0	14.8	27.0	2.4	25.3	122.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +9.3%

NJN +2.9%

MIA -1.9%

NJN +40.7%

MIA -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	15.3	15.6	104.4	93.5	102.3
season	14.7	16.5		101.4	96.6
opponent	15.8	16.0		98.2	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	13.4	18.6	13.8	19.2	16.2
MIA	17.2	13.3	15.5	15.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	74	75	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.10	18	-9	27	15.6	18.7	-3.12	15.8	13.1	2.70
Keith Van Horn	57	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	-7	23	14.2	19.5	-5.32	16.1	14.0	2.08
Kenyon Martin	59	58	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.03	14	-5	19	16.3	16.0	0.30	17.2	12.1	5.03
Aaron Williams	58	58	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	4	1	15.7	16.9	-1.22	15.7	14.7	0.97
Kerry Kittles	76	76	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	10	-11	16.2	15.7	0.52	15.4	15.0	0.38
Lucious Harris	32	33	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.15	1	8	-7	17.3	15.5	1.77	14.0	16.0	-2.00
Richard Jefferson	42	44	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.27	-5	14	-19	17.0	15.5	1.46	13.2	17.2	-4.00
Todd MacCulloch	28	29	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	3	3	15.2	16.6	-1.32	14.7	15.6	-0.86
Jason Collins	29	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.22	-9	18	-27	20.5	14.1	6.34	13.2	16.4	-3.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	18	18	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.16	13	-22	35	12.9	15.9	-2.95	20.4	15.1	5.33
Chris Gatling	13	14	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.05	5	-14	19	14.4	15.5	-1.08	19.6	15.5	4.03
Eddie House	6	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-11	13	14.3	15.4	-1.05	22.4	15.6	6.79
Rod Strickland	44	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-2	-5	16.2	14.5	1.70	14.5	17.7	-3.18
LaPhonso Ellis	65	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-10	11	14.3	17.8	-3.54	16.9	14.5	2.46
Anthony Carter	43	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-5	1	14.5	16.0	-1.55	16.7	15.7	0.93
Alonzo Mourning	63	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	1	-11	15.1	15.8	-0.75	15.4	17.9	-2.44
Brian Grant	76	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.14	-11	2	-13	15.6	13.8	1.82	15.4	19.3	-3.95
Jim Jackson	82	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.18	-14	5	-19	15.8	11.0	4.84	15.8	19.1	-3.33
Eddie Jones	50	51	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.01	-20	11	-31	16.8	13.6	3.16	15.6	16.9	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.27,0.37,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0	94.4%
MIA 93, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0	94.3%
HOU 83, NOH 74	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	93.9%