NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	6.3 [556]		MVP	Malik Sealy (MIN): +15.8%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	2.0 [308]		LVP	Jerome Kersey (SAS): -11.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Sealy	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.04	0.01	13	71%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.01	0.01	9	83%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.09	-0.00	18	57%	0.17	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
William Avery	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	9	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	42%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Tom Hammonds	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terrell Brandon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	0.02	12	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.03
Dean Garrett	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	11	78%	0.15	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	-0.02	0.02	11	82%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	-0.05	12	67%	0.15	3	-0.09	12	83%	0.01
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.06	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.02
Samaki Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	13	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	8	41%	-0.06	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	30.5	17.6	26.2	2.5	36.3	140.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +32.0%

SAS -17.4%

MIN +20.0%

MIN +12.3%

MIN +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	17.7	15.2	131.7	120.0	101.7
season	15.1	15.5		103.5	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		95.9	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.8	17.6	17.1	16.7	16.8
SAS	18.3	16.0	18.0	18.5	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	69	70	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-7	20	16.2	19.8	-3.61	18.4	14.1	4.38
Malik Sealy	62	64	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-5	16	17.1	15.8	1.33	18.7	14.5	4.24
Terrell Brandon	66	67	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.22	10	-4	14	16.3	18.7	-2.42	18.1	15.9	2.26
Wally Szczerbiak	62	66	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.19	9	-3	12	15.9	19.7	-3.90	17.1	19.6	-2.46
Joe Smith	33	37	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	-1	8	17.4	16.4	1.04	16.3	18.7	-2.38
Rasho Nesterovic	21	20	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.15	0	6	-6	17.7	16.5	1.22	22.4	16.2	6.18
William Avery	16	18	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	10	-14	18.7	16.3	2.42	15.9	18.1	-2.26
Dean Garrett	31	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	9	-12	17.4	16.4	0.99	17.0	18.1	-1.08
Anthony Peeler	42	41	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.20	-8	14	-22	17.1	16.4	0.69	16.7	18.6	-1.96
Tom Hammonds	8	10	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.02	-5	11	-16	17.5	16.7	0.77	11.0	18.6	-7.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	12	12	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.13	10	-16	26	18.1	17.6	0.48	18.2	16.6	1.69
Antonio Daniels	43	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.39	10	-16	26	17.2	18.2	-1.03	17.2	16.4	0.84
David Robinson	62	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-4	2	17.4	18.3	-0.93	16.8	16.7	0.11
Terry Porter	56	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.52	12	-18	30	16.6	19.7	-3.01	17.4	15.6	1.80
Mario Elie	40	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.16	-15	9	-24	18.0	17.4	0.57	15.2	18.0	-2.82
Avery Johnson	42	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	10	-26	18.2	17.2	1.03	16.4	17.2	-0.84
Jaren Jackson	56	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-4	2	17.6	17.7	-0.08	17.2	16.1	1.09
Samaki Walker	75	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	0	-6	17.4	19.6	-2.19	16.5	19.3	-2.84
Jerome Kersey	39	36	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.06	-21	15	-36	19.6	16.0	3.64	17.1	16.6	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0	93.7%
NJN 95, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	93.0%
HOU 113, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.15,0.02,0	92.9%