NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	4.8 [876]		MVP	Bryn Forbes (SAS): +16.5%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	1.0 [1118]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -16.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.01	11	76%	0.17	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.01	0.05	17	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	16	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Derrick White	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	7	22%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	21	40%	-0.13	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.09	-0.03	19	52%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	71%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	26	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	10	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.8	31.5	20.7	25.6	3.4	33.4	148.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +29.6%

DEN +2.0%

DEN +11.7%

DEN +3.6%

DEN +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	14.3	93.5	97.8	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		111.7	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		108.1	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	15.2	16.0	14.1	15.5
DEN	13.5	15.4	15.3	19.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	33	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-7	10	14.2	16.2	-1.99	15.3	16.1	-0.72
Jakob Poeltl	33	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	1	-6	17.4	14.4	3.02	15.8	15.8	-0.04
Derrick White	39	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.04	-9	5	-14	15.9	15.2	0.75	15.4	16.1	-0.75
Patty Mills	57	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.43	7	-11	18	15.1	16.1	-0.96	16.3	15.0	1.32
Rudy Gay	65	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.44	7	-11	18	14.7	17.3	-2.56	16.1	15.1	1.07
DeMar DeRozan	80	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-5	6	15.2	17.5	-2.31	16.0	14.6	1.34
Bryn Forbes	74	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	7	-18	16.0	13.2	2.82	15.9	15.3	0.67
LaMarcus Aldridge	79	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.22	-13	9	-22	15.7	14.4	1.29	15.3	19.1	-3.76

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	68	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-8	20	15.0	18.0	-3.01	16.4	12.7	3.67
Gary Harris	77	79	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	16.1	14.3	1.85	14.8	19.6	-4.81
Nikola Jokic	84	81	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.39	-1	5	-6	16.1	13.0	3.08	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Torrey Craig	50	50	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	0	4	16.1	15.5	0.58	15.7	15.3	0.37
Jamal Murray	62	62	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	3	-2	15.8	15.8	0.07	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Monte Morris	30	30	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	1	2	15.8	15.8	-0.07	15.6	15.4	0.16
Malik Beasley	39	39	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	3	-2	15.6	16.0	-0.39	15.3	15.6	-0.27
Mason Plumlee	24	24	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	4	-4	15.3	16.0	-0.65	15.2	15.6	-0.38
Will Barton	26	26	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.13	-2	6	-8	16.4	15.6	0.79	15.7	15.4	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.88,0.95,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 104, PHX 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.84,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
BOS 93, LAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.98,1,1	95.2%
SAS 93, PHX 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	95.1%