NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	2.9 [1204]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +12.8%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	1.3 [987]		LVP	Derrick White (SAS): -7.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	7	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	8	31%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	13	59%	0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	9	32%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Bryn Forbes	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Davis Bertans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	0.06	15	49%	-0.04	2	-0.04	5	100%	-0.00
Derrick White	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.01	0.07	11	48%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.01	0.01	8	83%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	16	70%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	9	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	11	71%	0.06	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	7	73%	0.02	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.05	11	62%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	9%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.8	29.0	13.0	32.5	2.8	25.2	129.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.0%

DEN +8.5%

DEN +5.8%

DEN +2.6%

DEN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	14.3	96.8	116.1	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		111.7	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		108.1	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	16.3	17.0	13.8	15.8
DEN	15.3	13.7	14.3	17.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	34	34	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.34	14	-32	46	14.0	16.8	-2.78	15.6	14.9	0.66
Quincy Pondexter	9	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-23	28	11.9	16.2	-4.33	21.2	14.6	6.65
Donatas Motiejunas	11	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-24	30	11.6	16.4	-4.72	21.8	14.4	7.43
Dante Cunningham	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-23	28	11.9	16.2	-4.33	22.7	14.4	8.30
Lonnie Walker IV	23	23	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-22	26	13.8	16.4	-2.62	17.5	14.4	3.06
Patty Mills	42	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-15	12	16.9	14.9	1.94	13.7	16.3	-2.66
Marco Belinelli	45	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	-10	2	15.5	16.1	-0.64	13.3	17.0	-3.61
Jakob Poeltl	50	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	-9	0	16.9	14.6	2.30	13.8	16.8	-3.03
Rudy Gay	40	38	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.23	-20	2	-22	15.1	16.3	-1.22	15.4	15.0	0.42
Derrick White	42	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.19	-20	2	-22	15.6	16.0	-0.41	15.0	15.3	-0.28
DeMar DeRozan	55	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.21	-21	3	-24	17.1	13.9	3.13	14.5	16.1	-1.51
Bryn Forbes	46	47	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	-1	-16	16.7	14.9	1.87	15.6	14.7	0.90
LaMarcus Aldridge	59	61	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.27	-26	8	-34	16.8	14.0	2.88	14.8	15.9	-1.17

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	65	63	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.22	27	-9	36	14.4	17.1	-2.72	16.4	14.4	2.01
Paul Millsap	45	46	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.34	31	-13	44	14.8	15.5	-0.76	17.9	13.7	4.23
Jamal Murray	52	52	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.45	33	-15	48	14.5	16.0	-1.57	17.6	13.6	4.00
Gary Harris	50	50	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.17	23	-5	28	14.9	15.5	-0.63	16.7	14.7	2.00
Torrey Craig	55	55	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	13	-8	14.5	16.2	-1.71	16.3	15.1	1.21
Will Barton	56	56	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	17	-16	15.3	14.9	0.42	14.7	17.4	-2.63
Malik Beasley	53	53	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.24	-6	24	-30	15.4	14.8	0.57	14.3	17.8	-3.47
Juancho Hernangomez	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	24	-30	21.8	14.4	7.43	11.6	16.4	-4.72
Monte Morris	48	47	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.25	-9	27	-36	15.6	14.7	0.85	14.2	17.4	-3.16
Mason Plumlee	31	32	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	27	-36	16.8	14.3	2.50	14.3	16.6	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 83, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
WAS 83, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.71,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
ORL 67, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%