NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	83		Excitement	3.2 [1103]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +11.3%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.2 [912]		LVP	Rick Fox (BOS): -10.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alton Lister	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brett Szabo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	16	49%	0.03	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02
Eric Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	-0.01	-0.08	13	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	16	59%	0.02	6	-0.10	7	57%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.17	0.00	-0.07	13	47%	-0.03	6	-0.07	10	70%	-0.01
Rick Fox	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	13	37%	-0.07	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	14	67%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	16	67%	0.07	4	-0.03	4	50%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	11	64%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	89%	0.02	2	-0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	12	58%	0.07	6	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	58%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	9	42%	0.01	3	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	26.3	15.5	30.4	2.4	26.3	126.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.5%

BOS -6.6%

MIA +9.8%

MIA +11.3%

BOS -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	14.4	15.6	88.3	108.4	104.4
season	14.8	15.8		101.8	103.1
opponent	16.3	14.7		98.3	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	15.6	16.4	17.2	16.1
MIA	15.3	12.6	13.6	16.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brett Szabo	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-19	18	15.5	16.4	-0.94	16.7	13.1	3.56
Alton Lister	49	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.13	-4	-16	12	15.8	16.4	-0.67	13.5	15.3	-1.84
Eric Williams	71	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	-4	-12	15.9	16.7	-0.79	14.4	14.3	0.11
David Wesley	82	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.08	-17	-3	-14	15.8	18.2	-2.37	14.6	12.6	1.98
Todd Day	75	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.07	-17	-3	-14	17.1	12.1	5.07	14.4	14.4	-0.05
Rick Fox	75	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.28	-25	5	-30	16.0	16.4	-0.34	13.9	16.1	-2.25
Antoine Walker	85	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.08	-20	0	-20	16.1	15.8	0.35	14.2	16.3	-2.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.33	28	-8	36	14.0	15.2	-1.19	16.8	14.5	2.34
Alonzo Mourning	86	86	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.12	19	1	18	14.6	12.4	2.15	16.1	16.4	-0.31
Voshon Lenard	54	54	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	5	10	13.5	15.6	-2.06	16.8	15.2	1.56
Keith Askins	64	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.24	22	-2	24	14.3	14.5	-0.24	16.7	15.0	1.68
Ike Austin	53	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	17	-14	15.4	13.1	2.32	15.7	16.6	-0.99
P.J. Brown	58	58	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	12	-4	14.1	14.8	-0.73	15.9	16.5	-0.61
Sasha Danilovic	49	48	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.04	6	14	-8	14.9	13.8	1.13	15.4	16.8	-1.43
John Crotty	35	33	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.22	-7	27	-34	15.4	13.8	1.55	14.4	17.0	-2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 76, MEM 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
SAS 90, DEN 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
NOH 65, BOS 93	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%