NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	119		Excitement	5.6 [741]		MVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): +28.6%
Houston Rockets	106		Comeback	2.1 [449]		LVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (HOU): -15.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.16,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.18	0.09	-0.02	18	70%	0.32	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Durant	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	27	62%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Nick Young	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	3	79%	0.07	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
David West	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	15	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Kevon Looney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	36%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.20	-0.01	-0.01	24	71%	0.32	4	-0.12	10	80%	0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	7	86%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	13	58%	0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.03	0.04	17	56%	0.04	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	3	11%	-0.06	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.3	28.5	16.5	29.5	3.4	31.3	140.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.0%

GSW +6.3%

HOU -4.4%

GSW +19.5%

HOU -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	13.6	15.0	14.7	120.2	103.9	107.5
season	13.7	14.6		112.6	112.8
opponent	14.8	15.1		105.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	14.0	13.2	13.5	13.6
HOU	17.3	13.7	15.6	13.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	75	78	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.07	19	-6	25	13.3	14.9	-1.62	15.9	12.0	3.91
Klay Thompson	89	91	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.10	13	0	13	13.3	16.4	-3.06	15.2	13.3	1.93
Kevin Durant	83	86	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	2	9	13.8	13.0	0.77	14.9	15.2	-0.31
Stephen Curry	71	75	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	8	-3	13.2	14.8	-1.64	15.4	13.9	1.45
Kevon Looney	49	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	7	-1	13.8	13.5	0.38	15.6	14.4	1.20
Andre Iguodala	57	61	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	13	-13	14.2	12.8	1.41	14.1	16.3	-2.18
Shaun Livingston	29	29	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	10	-7	14.9	13.1	1.77	13.7	15.5	-1.82
Nick Young	33	32	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	9	-5	13.8	13.6	0.21	13.5	15.7	-2.13
David West	9	8	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	9	-5	13.1	13.7	-0.59	14.0	15.1	-1.07

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	13	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-14	15	12.7	15.3	-2.63	13.7	13.6	0.05
Ryan Anderson	11	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-10	7	14.4	15.1	-0.70	14.9	13.5	1.45
Clint Capela	64	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-10	7	15.7	13.7	2.04	13.2	14.3	-1.01
PJ Tucker	73	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-5	-3	15.2	14.4	0.76	13.6	13.7	-0.03
Trevor Ariza	48	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-8	3	15.7	14.4	1.28	14.0	13.3	0.69
Gerald Green	34	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-4	-5	14.8	15.1	-0.25	14.0	13.5	0.49
Chris Paul	82	81	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	-6	-1	14.2	18.1	-3.87	13.7	13.2	0.52
James Harden	76	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-6	-1	15.3	14.2	1.07	13.5	14.0	-0.49
Eric Gordon	74	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	-3	-7	14.4	16.6	-2.18	13.6	13.8	-0.19
Luc Mbah a Moute	35	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.05	-14	1	-15	15.9	14.5	1.36	13.3	13.9	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 97, MIN 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.6%
HOU 91, GSW 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	93.9%
PHX 104, WAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.12,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.8%