NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	4.8 [885]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +12.3%
Cleveland Cavaliers	111		Comeback	1.1 [1129]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -16.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aron Baynes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	15	48%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Semi Ojeleye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	13	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jaylen Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.01	0.06	23	51%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Marcus Morris	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Marcus Smart	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.02	0.03	8	40%	-0.05	5	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	28	64%	0.23	7	-0.11	13	69%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.01	0.02	7	78%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	9	68%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	1	78%	0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
JR Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cedi Osman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	-0.01	-0.06	12	35%	-0.02	6	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.4	32.2	14.8	36.2	3.3	32.6	151.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +40.3%

CLE +0.7%

CLE +14.4%

BOS -6.7%

CLE +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	13.6	15.3	14.7	104.1	109.9	107.5
season	15.1	14.8		106.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.7		110.6	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.6	13.5	12.8	12.5	13.6
CLE	12.1	15.9	15.8	17.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	32	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-8	7	13.8	13.5	0.27	14.7	15.6	-0.92
Al Horford	86	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-11	13	13.5	14.7	-1.27	16.3	9.9	6.43
Terry Rozier	77	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-12	15	13.5	14.0	-0.47	16.8	10.1	6.68
Semi Ojeleye	21	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.13	-14	5	-19	15.2	13.2	1.98	11.3	16.4	-5.10
Marcus Smart	64	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-5	1	13.9	13.1	0.74	14.1	17.7	-3.65
Marcus Morris	49	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	0	-9	13.2	14.0	-0.82	15.9	14.7	1.25
Jaylen Brown	82	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-1	-7	13.8	12.9	0.83	15.3	15.0	0.35
Jayson Tatum	79	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.12	-14	5	-19	13.3	14.9	-1.63	14.7	17.9	-3.23

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	87	85	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	0	9	15.7	12.5	3.24	13.3	15.5	-2.20
Tristan Thompson	79	80	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	0	9	15.6	14.1	1.53	13.8	12.9	0.84
George Hill	82	78	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	0	9	14.9	16.8	-1.92	13.8	13.1	0.61
JR Smith	68	66	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	1	7	16.2	13.5	2.68	13.1	14.7	-1.52
Kevin Love	59	59	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	4	1	16.2	14.0	2.20	13.2	14.4	-1.21
Jeff Green	45	43	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.12	5	4	1	13.4	16.8	-3.44	13.9	13.4	0.45
Larry Nance Jr.	24	21	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	2	5	13.2	15.9	-2.73	14.9	13.3	1.56
Kyle Korver	51	50	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	9	-9	15.3	15.3	-0.03	14.2	13.0	1.16
Cedi Osman	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	11	-13	7.0	15.4	-8.37	0.0	13.6	-13.63
Jordan Clarkson	9	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.09	-5	14	-19	14.8	15.3	-0.56	13.5	13.6	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 74, BKN 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.98,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,1	95.8%
ORL 94, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.89,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.8%
LAC 102, MEM 110	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,1,1	95.6%