NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	6.9 [449]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): +20.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	87		Comeback	1.6 [387]		LVP	Tony Allen (MEM): -20.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.19	0.05	0.04	22	65%	0.21	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	5	92%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Danny Green	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	10	55%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	10	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
David West	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jonathon Simmons	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	8	12%	-0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Xavier Munford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	87%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	15	49%	0.11	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	83%	0.15	3	-0.12	2	0%	-0.07
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	7	57%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	12	39%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	8	44%	-0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	21	45%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tony Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	8	23%	-0.17	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	3.4	32.5	16.6	27.0	2.8	31.4	138.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.3%

SAS +7.2%

MEM -22.7%

SAS +12.7%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.9	16.2	14.9	107.9	96.7	105.1
season	15.7	15.7		109.0	103.4
opponent	14.8	14.7		106.7	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	13.7	16.0	18.0	15.9
MEM	15.5	17.0	16.0	16.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	39	42	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	-7	23	15.3	16.4	-1.13	15.5	16.9	-1.42
Patty Mills	39	39	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	14	-5	19	14.3	17.2	-2.91	16.6	16.0	0.58
Danny Green	44	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-2	13	16.7	15.2	1.41	15.9	16.6	-0.63
Manu Ginobili	53	51	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-1	11	14.9	17.4	-2.47	16.8	15.5	1.27
Kawhi Leonard	80	77	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	5	-1	16.2	13.7	2.53	16.2	16.4	-0.18
LaMarcus Aldridge	59	58	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.18	3	6	-3	16.6	14.6	2.08	16.8	15.2	1.57
David West	36	37	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	1	7	13.9	17.3	-3.45	16.5	16.1	0.38
Kyle Anderson	25	26	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	9	-9	16.5	15.7	0.75	15.8	16.4	-0.60
Jonathon Simmons	4	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.04	-2	11	-13	16.5	15.9	0.58	12.2	16.4	-4.17
Tim Duncan	23	24	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.09	-8	17	-25	18.0	15.2	2.83	15.8	16.4	-0.60
Tony Parker	43	44	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	20	-31	17.3	14.7	2.63	16.3	16.2	0.17

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	71	70	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.16	2	-11	13	16.6	14.9	1.63	16.4	14.3	2.07
Jordan Farmar	61	60	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-9	9	16.8	15.1	1.62	16.5	14.8	1.66
Lance Stephenson	44	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-8	7	16.2	16.3	-0.10	14.7	17.0	-2.28
Tony Allen	63	65	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.21	2	-11	13	16.9	14.6	2.29	16.6	14.3	2.26
Chris Andersen	28	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	0	-9	15.4	16.6	-1.17	14.2	16.7	-2.52
JaMychal Green	27	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	0	-9	14.9	16.8	-1.97	15.3	16.2	-0.93
Vince Carter	48	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-1	-7	16.2	16.3	-0.05	17.0	14.7	2.28
Xavier Munford	29	29	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	0	-9	15.1	16.8	-1.62	14.8	16.5	-1.66
Matt Barnes	79	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	4	-17	16.2	16.6	-0.46	15.9	16.5	-0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.39,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 84, DEN 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.2,0.14,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.2%
MEM 120, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.12,0.2,0.45,0.22,0.02,0,0	92.0%
MEM 106, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.15,0.17,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.15,0.01,0.01,0	92.0%