NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	90		Excitement	8.8 [169]		MVP	Marvin Williams (CHA): +24.6%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	3.8 [189]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -34.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.11	0.14	0.01	10	85%	0.30	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,0.22	-0.01	0.24	0.01	9	40%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.14	-0.00	6	57%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.07	0.01	14	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.04	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Jeremy Lin	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	10	42%	-0.08	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Kemba Walker	-0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.34	-0.08	-0.26	-0.00	18	36%	-0.27	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	8	68%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.09,0.09,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	19	60%	0.21	5	-0.20	4	75%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	12	53%	0.13	2	-0.17	6	100%	0.04
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	8	50%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.14	-0.02	15	33%	-0.17	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.5	30.3	17.6	25.8	2.7	37.3	142.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +30.8%

CHA +0.5%

CHA +4.0%

CHA +14.7%

MIA -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	14.9	91.8	88.9	105.1
season	15.1	15.5		105.5	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.8	13.9	17.2	15.3	15.2
MIA	13.0	12.3	14.1	17.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	62	63	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.43	8	-6	14	15.1	15.4	-0.28	14.4	13.4	0.92
Cody Zeller	44	44	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	-2	6	14.5	15.8	-1.34	14.7	13.5	1.25
Courtney Lee	56	58	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.56	0	2	-2	16.0	14.1	1.92	14.9	12.8	2.13
Jeremy Lin	73	74	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	-4	10	14.7	16.7	-1.97	13.9	14.6	-0.71
Kemba Walker	70	71	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.46	-7	9	-16	15.6	14.4	1.20	13.7	14.7	-1.00
Spencer Hawes	31	32	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.09	11	-9	20	13.6	15.9	-2.30	14.5	13.8	0.74
Nicolas Batum	53	51	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	0	2	14.6	15.9	-1.33	13.9	14.2	-0.26
Frank Kaminsky	57	57	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	6	-10	15.8	14.3	1.50	13.6	14.6	-1.02
Al Jefferson	44	45	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.02	-10	12	-22	16.4	14.3	2.09	12.8	15.0	-2.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	34	35	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-2	2	13.2	14.4	-1.21	14.6	15.6	-0.96
Gerald Green	12	13	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	0	-2	11.3	14.4	-3.07	12.3	15.7	-3.35
Joe Johnson	74	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.35	9	-11	20	14.0	14.1	-0.07	15.9	13.2	2.60
Goran Dragic	65	66	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-4	6	13.7	14.7	-1.07	15.5	14.7	0.83
Josh Richardson	66	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	0	-2	13.9	14.3	-0.45	14.7	16.2	-1.46
Luol Deng	74	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-5	8	14.1	13.8	0.36	15.6	14.0	1.58
Justise Winslow	39	36	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.05	-14	12	-26	14.8	13.5	1.35	14.1	15.8	-1.70
Hassan Whiteside	65	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.47	-2	0	-2	14.4	13.2	1.21	15.6	14.6	0.96
Dwyane Wade	66	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	2	-6	14.5	13.2	1.32	15.4	14.8	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.59,0.6,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.68,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 109, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.54,0.68,0.63,0	90.8%
PHI 107, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.46,0.4,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.96,0	90.8%
POR 103, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.73,0.59,0.66,0.47,0.32,0.64,0.67,0.58,0	90.4%