NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	103		Excitement	4.3 [970]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +17.1%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.2 [961]		LVP	Marvin Williams (CHA): -18.4%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.04	17	69%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Lin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.00	0.06	7	71%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Cody Zeller	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	53%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Spencer Hawes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	1	83%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Frank Kaminsky	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Kemba Walker	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	29	47%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	36%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.02	-0.01	10	0%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.02	0.01	8	100%	0.18	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.03	-0.01	12	64%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	9	71%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	11	64%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	22	55%	0.09	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.8	28.8	16.8	25.2	3.4	39.3	143.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +75.2%

MIA +0.2%

CHA -17.8%

CHA -6.9%

CHA -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	15.1	14.9	109.6	123.7	105.1
season	15.1	15.5		105.5	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	13.0	17.5	18.9	14.1	15.7
MIA	15.3	15.2	13.8	15.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Frank Kaminsky	34	35	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-18	24	17.7	14.6	3.08	16.6	14.2	2.38
Cody Zeller	30	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	13.6	16.7	-3.15	14.6	15.3	-0.73
Spencer Hawes	15	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-14	16	12.7	16.3	-3.62	16.6	14.8	1.81
Courtney Lee	62	61	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-15	18	14.0	18.9	-4.89	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Jeremy Lin	49	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-15	18	16.4	14.9	1.50	15.7	14.4	1.28
Al Jefferson	49	49	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.07	-14	2	-16	18.0	13.3	4.69	14.9	15.3	-0.35
Kemba Walker	82	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	0	-12	15.4	17.9	-2.53	14.9	16.5	-1.62
Marvin Williams	60	58	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.02	-18	6	-24	14.6	17.7	-3.08	14.2	16.6	-2.38
Nicolas Batum	67	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	6	-24	16.5	13.7	2.87	14.8	15.7	-0.82

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	66	68	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.00	15	-3	18	14.3	17.0	-2.75	15.3	16.8	-1.51
Dwyane Wade	64	65	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-3	18	14.9	15.5	-0.63	15.4	16.3	-0.91
Hassan Whiteside	58	60	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	4	4	15.1	15.1	-0.09	16.2	14.9	1.30
Luol Deng	75	75	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	2	8	15.0	15.6	-0.58	14.7	19.9	-5.24
Justise Winslow	58	58	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	6	0	15.8	13.9	1.92	16.7	14.2	2.46
Josh Richardson	58	58	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	9	-6	15.6	14.3	1.33	16.7	14.2	2.46
Goran Dragic	55	55	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	11	-10	14.8	15.5	-0.70	14.8	17.0	-2.20
Amar'e Stoudemire	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.12	-1	13	-14	15.8	14.8	1.03	16.3	15.5	0.77
Gerald Green	4	5	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	9	-6	15.2	15.1	0.17	20.6	15.4	5.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 91, DET 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
CHI 92, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
POR 91, ORL 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%