NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	91		Excitement	4.6 [876]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +8.8%
Detroit Pistons	113		Comeback	1.3 [1089]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -11.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	17	47%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	11	42%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Corey Maggette	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
John Amaechi	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	14	59%	-0.00	6	-0.09	18	72%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.02	-0.04	0.10	9	64%	-0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	22	64%	0.14	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	15	63%	0.06	4	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	86%	0.07	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.02	4	56%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	41%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	1	62%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	22	47%	-0.07	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	38.4	14.8	29.0	1.8	30.3	144.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +8.2%

DET +7.8%

DET +23.5%

DET +8.8%

DET +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	13.4	14.4	15.2	89.2	107.6	101.7
season	13.6	14.1		100.4	104.2
opponent	15.3	15.4		103.0	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.3	14.3	15.1	12.1	13.4
DET	14.4	14.5	13.2	15.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-19	16	12.0	13.5	-1.47	15.0	14.4	0.62
Corey Maggette	21	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-22	22	12.8	13.6	-0.76	14.2	14.4	-0.20
Michael Doleac	10	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.19	-8	-14	6	16.4	13.1	3.31	16.3	14.2	2.09
Anthony Johnson	25	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-19	16	12.8	13.6	-0.76	15.5	14.0	1.51
Monty Williams	17	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-18	14	14.3	13.2	1.06	17.4	13.8	3.52
Chucky Atkins	46	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-21	20	13.4	13.4	-0.08	15.6	13.4	2.14
Ben Wallace	41	42	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-11	0	13.4	13.4	0.05	13.0	15.3	-2.37
Pat Garrity	52	53	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.01	-9	-13	4	13.7	13.1	0.61	15.5	13.3	2.16
Darrell Armstrong	61	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.19	-20	-2	-18	13.3	13.6	-0.37	13.5	15.7	-2.19
Bo Outlaw	77	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.14	-19	-3	-16	13.2	14.0	-0.78	14.1	15.3	-1.21
Ron Mercer	81	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.16	-20	-2	-18	13.3	13.7	-0.32	13.9	16.3	-2.37
John Amaechi	75	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.08	-12	-10	-2	13.4	13.3	0.11	14.0	15.6	-1.60

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	81	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.14	22	0	22	14.1	15.3	-1.16	13.6	12.8	0.76
Christian Laettner	77	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.12	20	2	18	13.9	15.9	-1.99	13.4	13.6	-0.22
Lindsey Hunter	85	82	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.19	21	1	20	13.6	17.8	-4.26	12.9	15.5	-2.60
Grant Hill	75	76	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	10	2	14.3	14.6	-0.28	13.6	13.0	0.55
Terry Mills	42	41	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.03	9	13	-4	14.2	14.5	-0.31	14.2	12.9	1.31
Michael Curry	40	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	16	-10	16.2	13.3	2.91	13.8	13.2	0.58
Mikki Moore	38	37	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	17	-12	14.4	14.4	0.03	13.5	13.4	0.16
Jerome Williams	30	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.12	7	15	-8	16.7	13.5	3.27	14.0	13.2	0.85
Jud Buechler	20	16	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	19	-16	12.2	14.9	-2.72	10.3	14.0	-3.68
Loy Vaught	2	1	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	20	-18	8.0	14.5	-6.52	21.0	13.3	7.66
John Crotty	25	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	20	-18	16.7	13.7	2.99	14.5	13.1	1.42
Eric Montross	10	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	21	-20	14.6	14.4	0.22	10.4	13.7	-3.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 92, NYK 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
CHA 103, MIA 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	96.0%
NYK 95, CHA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%