NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	82		Excitement	6.9 [431]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +35.0%
Chicago Bulls	91		Comeback	2.4 [735]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -18.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	20	51%	0.08	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	10	36%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	42%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	12	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	11	25%	-0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.15	-0.01	19	60%	0.35	0	0.00	14	57%	-0.08
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	3	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	14	45%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.04
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	9	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	12	37%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	9	33%	-0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	3.4	33.2	17.7	25.5	3.4	32.6	137.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +46.2%

MIL -3.0%

CHI +25.1%

MIL -26.7%

CHI +8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.6	16.4	15.1	88.2	97.8	104.2
season	14.5	15.5		100.5	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.5	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.2	14.3	14.8	13.9	14.6
CHI	16.1	17.8	14.0	18.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerryd Bayless	30	28	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-6	3	14.9	14.4	0.55	16.4	16.4	-0.02
Jared Dudley	33	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-11	13	15.8	13.9	1.95	15.8	16.7	-0.91
Zaza Pachulia	45	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-7	5	13.9	15.1	-1.21	16.5	16.3	0.17
Ersan Ilyasova	46	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-3	-3	14.3	14.8	-0.46	16.3	16.5	-0.22
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-8	7	14.3	15.5	-1.15	16.3	16.9	-0.68
John Henson	48	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-2	-5	15.1	13.9	1.21	16.3	16.5	-0.17
O.J. Mayo	52	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	0	-9	14.5	14.6	-0.09	16.7	16.0	0.64
Michael Carter-Williams	63	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.32	-6	-3	-3	14.4	14.9	-0.55	16.4	16.4	0.02
Khris Middleton	74	74	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	4	-17	14.4	15.2	-0.75	16.7	15.4	1.31

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	90	88	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-3	15	16.5	12.7	3.87	14.4	17.8	-3.42
Tony Snell	25	27	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.23	9	0	9	17.1	16.2	0.92	15.9	14.0	1.93
Derrick Rose	73	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	1	7	16.5	16.1	0.33	14.4	15.0	-0.55
Nikola Mirotic	40	43	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-2	13	16.6	16.2	0.42	15.1	14.1	1.04
Joakim Noah	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	9	-9	16.5	16.2	0.29	14.0	15.8	-1.78
Pau Gasol	66	66	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	5	-1	16.2	17.0	-0.78	14.3	15.1	-0.73
Mike Dunleavy	66	64	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	5	-1	16.0	17.3	-1.25	14.0	15.8	-1.74
Aaron Brooks	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	8	-7	16.1	16.5	-0.33	15.0	14.4	0.55
Taj Gibson	21	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	13	-17	16.2	16.5	-0.28	16.5	14.0	2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 90, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.8,0.79,0.98,1,1	94.1%
MIL 77, CHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.57,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
DAL 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,1	93.3%