NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	77		Excitement	5.4 [762]		MVP	Eddy Curry (CHI): +4.5%
Chicago Bulls	85		Comeback	2.0 [849]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -14.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendall Gill	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	8	37%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	11	55%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	22	47%	0.02	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Marcus Fizer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	13	44%	-0.00	3	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	45%	-0.05	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	11	27%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddy Curry	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.04	14	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.10	0.04	-0.07	23	52%	0.10	6	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.05	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	2	50%	-0.06	1	-0.05	8	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.8	29.4	16.7	22.2	2.5	31.5	131.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +51.4%

MIL -3.7%

CHI +0.6%

CHI +3.6%

MIL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.8	15.7	15.5	87.5	95.5	104.0
season	16.0	15.1		104.4	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.0		98.9	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	16.8	18.3	16.3	16.8
CHI	15.9	16.7	15.2	15.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	74	74	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	16.7	17.4	-0.61	15.9	14.9	1.01
Joe Smith	74	74	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	16.7	17.4	-0.61	15.9	14.9	1.01
Mo Williams	48	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	-4	0	16.2	17.6	-1.44	16.8	14.5	2.31
Dan Gadzuric	36	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-5	2	19.2	15.2	4.03	15.8	15.6	0.14
Zaza Pachulia	31	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-3	-2	15.1	17.8	-2.64	15.5	15.8	-0.31
Mike James	40	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	17.6	16.2	1.44	14.5	16.8	-2.31
Marcus Fizer	23	24	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	3	-14	17.8	16.5	1.27	14.8	16.0	-1.25
Kendall Gill	44	45	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	2	-12	16.6	17.0	-0.41	15.0	16.4	-1.34
Desmond Mason	70	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	1	-10	16.4	18.6	-2.16	16.1	14.1	2.07

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Piatkowski	20	19	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	0	8	14.7	16.0	-1.30	16.5	16.9	-0.40
Andres Nocioni	55	53	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	15.4	16.2	-0.76	16.5	17.4	-0.93
Kirk Hinrich	77	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	4	0	15.8	14.9	0.91	16.8	17.4	-0.63
Tyson Chandler	55	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	3	2	14.8	17.2	-2.38	16.3	17.8	-1.52
Eddy Curry	68	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	4	0	15.7	15.7	-0.01	17.5	14.1	3.43
Antonio Davis	41	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	-1	10	16.4	15.1	1.36	17.8	16.1	1.71
Chris Duhon	36	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	3	2	15.3	16.0	-0.72	17.1	16.6	0.46
Luol Deng	45	44	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	7	-6	16.6	14.8	1.85	16.5	17.2	-0.77
Adrian Griffin	1	1	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	7	-6	22.0	15.6	6.36	16.0	16.9	-0.85
Ben Gordon	47	44	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	11	-14	16.0	15.4	0.66	16.5	17.2	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.57,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,1	93.8%
MIL 82, CHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1	93.6%
ATL 102, CHA 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.48,0.62,0.81,0.87,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%