NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	90		Excitement	3.3 [1134]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +22.6%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.0 [1137]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -7.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	8	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	10	68%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	71%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	18	53%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Copeland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.04	16	59%	0.09	5	-0.11	7	57%	-0.01
Lance Stephenson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	7	47%	-0.03	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Roy Hibbert	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.04	0.00	21	70%	0.27	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.18	0.02	0.05	12	74%	0.16	0	0.00	10	80%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	2	71%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	4	70%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	12	48%	0.04	2	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	8	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.4	29.6	17.4	35.5	3.4	32.2	146.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +15.7%

MIA +16.0%

MIA +3.1%

MIA +12.7%

MIA +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	17.6	15.1	108.4	121.4	105.2
season	15.8	15.6		102.7	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.2		105.1	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.4	18.7	18.2	13.9	16.9
MIA	17.9	15.6	14.5	22.8	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Copeland	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.31	11	-23	34	10.2	17.3	-7.11	26.8	17.0	9.77
CJ Watson	34	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-11	10	17.1	16.7	0.35	16.6	18.3	-1.78
Ian Mahinmi	29	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.15	3	-15	18	17.9	16.3	1.62	16.2	18.3	-2.14
Rasual Butler	17	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-11	10	17.4	16.7	0.67	17.4	17.7	-0.25
Luis Scola	23	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.19	-10	-2	-8	17.8	16.5	1.25	19.5	17.0	2.49
David West	64	67	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-8	4	16.5	18.2	-1.73	17.3	18.6	-1.30
Roy Hibbert	39	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.24	-23	11	-34	18.0	15.9	2.16	16.2	18.9	-2.71
Paul George	74	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	-1	-10	16.5	20.1	-3.62	17.6	17.7	-0.16
Lance Stephenson	55	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.06	-14	2	-16	16.6	17.5	-0.94	18.6	15.6	3.02
George Hill	75	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	-2	-8	16.8	17.7	-0.96	17.8	15.7	2.05

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	64	62	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.01	17	-5	22	17.4	18.2	-0.84	16.9	16.9	0.03
LeBron James	64	62	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	2	8	16.9	20.0	-3.14	16.6	17.6	-0.93
Dwyane Wade	64	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	2	8	18.0	16.2	1.78	17.1	16.1	0.96
Rashard Lewis	47	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-2	16	15.4	20.4	-4.95	18.4	15.0	3.44
Mario Chalmers	45	44	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.10	8	4	4	15.9	19.6	-3.65	17.5	16.2	1.37
Norris Cole	46	45	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	11	-10	18.9	16.0	2.89	15.7	18.2	-2.50
Ray Allen	47	45	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	12	-12	19.5	15.2	4.27	15.6	18.3	-2.70
Shane Battier	13	15	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	8	-4	18.5	17.5	1.01	17.3	16.8	0.55
Udonis Haslem	30	30	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	16	-20	19.4	16.6	2.74	17.0	16.8	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, UTA 115	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
LAC 98, POR 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
SAC 95, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%