NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	120		Excitement	11.1 [45]		MVP	Mo Williams (POR): +29.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	123		Comeback	8.6 [169]		LVP	Patrick Beverley (HOU): -16.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Daniels	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.28	0.19	0.09	-0.00	7	100%	0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Dwight Howard	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,0.2,0.11,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.02	0.14	0.00	14	56%	0.38	3	-0.22	17	65%	-0.03
James Harden	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	21	56%	0.19	5	-0.14	8	87%	0.14
Chandler Parsons	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.13	-0.06	0.02	18	68%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Omer Asik	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	6	29%	0.02	3	-0.16	2	100%	0.02
Patrick Beverley	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	7	37%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29	0.29	-0.03	0.31	-0.00	11	37%	0.29	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.11	-0.02	13	70%	0.32	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.04
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.14	-0.00	23	52%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	2	73%	0.11	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	23	54%	0.11	1	-0.08	8	62%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.08,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.05	0.02	15	62%	0.11	2	-0.11	4	75%	0.02
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.6	3.4	32.3	18.8	33.3	2.6	42.4	3.5	28.7	190.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +50.5%

HOU -18.6%

POR +4.4%

POR +23.7%

HOU -10.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	15.8	14.9	15.1	116.5	118.3	105.2
season	14.3	15.1		109.5	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.2		106.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
HOU	17.3	16.3	14.0	16.6	14.4	15.8
POR	15.5	17.1	16.0	13.4	10.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Daniels	40	44	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.07	9	-12	21	15.3	16.2	-0.92	14.0	15.5	-1.47
Terrence Jones	39	40	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-7	11	16.2	15.6	0.60	16.8	13.7	3.06
Jeremy Lin	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-3	3	15.6	16.0	-0.43	15.6	14.5	1.15
Omer Asik	63	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-1	-1	17.0	13.9	3.08	15.2	14.5	0.70
Chandler Parsons	89	89	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	0	-3	15.5	18.1	-2.59	15.0	14.3	0.73
James Harden	84	85	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.44	-6	3	-9	15.9	15.5	0.44	14.8	15.2	-0.32
Patrick Beverley	74	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.47	-7	4	-11	15.6	16.3	-0.66	14.2	16.7	-2.49
Dwight Howard	86	86	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.42	-10	7	-17	15.6	16.9	-1.32	14.5	16.8	-2.34

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	87	88	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.38	14	-11	25	14.7	16.1	-1.46	15.4	18.7	-3.31
Wesley Matthews	82	83	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-8	19	14.5	16.2	-1.63	15.7	16.5	-0.83
Nicolas Batum	89	87	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.50	1	2	-1	14.6	16.7	-2.15	15.9	15.2	0.69
Damian Lillard	93	92	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	2	-1	14.6	17.2	-2.56	16.1	13.9	2.16
Robin Lopez	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	-1	5	15.4	14.3	1.11	17.8	13.2	4.51
Thomas Robinson	13	13	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	0	3	15.3	14.8	0.47	13.2	16.2	-2.98
Dorell Wright	37	35	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.36	-12	15	-27	14.7	15.0	-0.34	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Joel Freeland	13	12	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	7	-11	16.1	14.7	1.35	16.2	15.8	0.38
Mo Williams	47	46	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.25	-3	6	-9	16.2	13.8	2.37	14.7	16.7	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.95,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 95, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.09,0.21,0.46,0.33,0.55,0.7,0.56,0.69,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.91,0.92,1	91.7%
SAS 110, SAC 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.19,0.26,0.41,0.4,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.27,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.91,0.92,1	90.8%
HOU 95, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.54,0.73,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.68,0.73,1	89.7%