NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	10.6 [45]		MVP	Will Perdue (SAS): +24.0%
Sacramento Kings	114		Comeback	7.2 [379]		LVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): -27.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24	0.03	0.21	0.00	7	67%	0.26	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Vinny Del Negro	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.13	-0.00	0.00	16	69%	0.14	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.04
Greg Anderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Vernon Maxwell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	15	50%	0.14	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.04
Carl Herrera	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.2	-0.01	-0.18	-0.00	13	53%	-0.11	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.07
Dominique Wilkins	-0.28	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.05,-0.12,-0.26,-0.35,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.02	-0.26	-0.00	23	54%	-0.13	3	-0.14	11	91%	0.08

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.12,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	0.01	5	109%	0.29	1	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.01	11	59%	0.16	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	13	59%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Olden Polynice	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	8	75%	0.16	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.09	0.01	11	53%	0.11	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	4	75%	0.12	3	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.02,-0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	22	52%	0.04	3	-0.16	10	90%	0.05
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	30.0	14.8	24.2	2.3	34.5	1.7	16.2	147.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +45.6%

SAC +7.6%

SAC +37.7%

SAS -39.0%

SAS -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.6	108.9	110.7	104.4
season	16.8	15.4		100.8	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		106.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.7	15.3	16.6	17.9	13.3	15.8
SAC	16.7	15.3	16.9	15.6	10.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	34	34	0.30	-0.80	1.09	-0.03	11	-15	26	15.4	15.9	-0.51	16.7	14.8	1.86
Greg Anderson	40	41	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-5	6	15.7	15.8	-0.09	16.1	15.0	1.07
Carl Herrera	44	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	2	-8	15.2	16.2	-0.97	15.9	15.0	0.86
Dominique Wilkins	81	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-6	8	15.5	16.8	-1.31	15.0	17.2	-2.26
Vernon Maxwell	69	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	-1	-2	15.7	15.8	-0.04	15.1	16.2	-1.11
Vinny Del Negro	86	86	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.39	-8	4	-12	15.8	15.6	0.18	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Will Perdue	58	59	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.48	-6	2	-8	16.4	14.9	1.47	15.5	15.4	0.11
Cory Alexander	93	95	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.33	-11	7	-18	16.0	13.1	2.85	15.3	17.0	-1.71

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	69	68	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.50	9	-5	14	15.2	15.8	-0.59	16.0	15.3	0.67
Mitch Richmond	82	80	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.46	8	-4	12	15.2	16.2	-1.02	15.9	15.2	0.65
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	69	66	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-2	8	14.8	16.8	-2.04	14.9	17.4	-2.56
Billy Owens	27	28	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	0	4	13.3	16.2	-2.89	15.1	16.0	-0.84
Olden Polynice	67	65	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	4	-4	15.8	14.7	1.08	15.7	15.9	-0.17
Kevin Gamble	54	53	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	0	4	16.0	14.8	1.17	17.2	14.2	2.98
Bobby Hurley	19	19	0.12	0.39	-0.27	-0.09	7	-3	10	16.7	15.1	1.54	18.7	15.1	3.61
Duane Causwell	7	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	6	-8	16.4	15.4	1.07	12.7	16.0	-3.26
Corliss Williamson	56	56	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.10	2	2	0	16.0	14.7	1.33	16.4	14.9	1.52
Lionel Simmons	23	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	8	-12	15.2	15.5	-0.33	13.0	16.5	-3.58
Brian Grant	27	25	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.05	-5	9	-14	15.3	15.5	-0.13	14.4	16.2	-1.85
Tyus Edney	15	16	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	13	-22	16.9	15.2	1.76	15.9	15.7	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.19,0.26,0.41,0.4,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.27,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.91,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 120, POR 123	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.95,0.85,1	90.8%
TOR 109, MIA 116	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.15,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.38,0.78,0.78,0.42,0.46,0.81,0.64,0.91,0.98,1	90.8%
POR 95, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.09,0.21,0.46,0.33,0.55,0.7,0.56,0.69,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.91,0.92,1	90.3%