NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	91		Excitement	8.5 [184]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +41.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	93		Comeback	11.0 [132]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -24.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.08	-0.04	-0.01	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.21
Austin Daye	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	10	41%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Zach Randolph	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.05	0.00	16	49%	0.10	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.05
Marc Gasol	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.25,-0.04	0.07	-0.09	0.01	14	57%	0.25	1	-0.29	7	57%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	27%	-0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.24	-0.08	-0.17	-0.00	15	39%	-0.05	2	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.41	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.01	26	56%	0.53	3	-0.12	10	90%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.19	0.10	-0.00	14	71%	0.32	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	8	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	10	21%	-0.15	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.07
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.4	41.4	17.5	27.9	3.7	46.8	166.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +24.1%

OKC +3.0%

MEM -13.9%

OKC +36.6%

OKC +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	17.2	13.4	15.4	96.8	98.9	104.1
season	16.5	14.8		102.9	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		100.6	99.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.7	16.1	16.2	20.0	17.2
OKC	14.6	13.2	15.1	10.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	25	23	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.06	1	-3	4	14.0	18.4	-4.34	14.7	13.0	1.70
Tony Allen	40	41	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	1	-4	16.5	17.7	-1.22	14.4	12.6	1.82
Keyon Dooling	14	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.17	-6	4	-10	21.1	16.5	4.52	11.7	13.7	-2.00
Austin Daye	10	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-1	0	17.3	17.2	0.09	10.9	13.7	-2.84
Jerryd Bayless	40	39	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	2	-6	17.4	17.1	0.35	12.7	13.9	-1.23
Marc Gasol	79	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.48	3	-5	8	17.0	18.6	-1.64	13.2	14.4	-1.17
Tayshaun Prince	65	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-2	2	18.2	15.1	3.02	13.6	13.0	0.54
Mike Conley	76	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.58	4	-6	10	16.7	19.4	-2.68	13.7	12.1	1.68
Quincy Pondexter	50	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.52	-2	0	-2	17.2	17.2	-0.05	12.7	14.2	-1.46
Zach Randolph	71	72	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.60	-2	0	-2	17.9	15.3	2.60	13.7	12.4	1.31

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	49	49	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.47	14	-12	26	11.9	15.0	-3.13	17.0	17.5	-0.47
Serge Ibaka	54	54	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.53	4	-2	6	14.1	12.4	1.72	17.8	16.4	1.43
Kevin Durant	86	85	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	0	2	13.2	16.1	-2.96	17.3	16.2	1.11
Kendrick Perkins	65	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.65	-8	10	-18	13.8	12.5	1.30	17.7	16.1	1.60
Thabo Sefolosha	35	36	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.53	-10	12	-22	14.1	13.0	1.16	17.0	17.4	-0.36
Kevin Martin	61	62	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.21	14	-12	26	13.0	14.3	-1.32	17.4	16.8	0.62
DeAndre Liggins	8	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	2	-2	16.1	13.2	2.96	16.2	17.3	-1.11
Nick Collison	43	43	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.16	4	-2	6	12.9	13.9	-0.98	16.1	18.1	-2.00
Hasheem Thabeet	9	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	8	-14	11.9	13.6	-1.69	16.0	17.3	-1.34
Reggie Jackson	60	60	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.08	-4	6	-10	14.2	12.0	2.17	17.2	17.3	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 116, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.45,0.43,0.27,1	92.0%
GSW 112, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.45,0.32,0.28,1	90.9%
BOS 90, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.17,1	90.9%