NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	112		Excitement	9.1 [109]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +35.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	10.7 [244]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -22.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.36	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36	0.26	0.12	0.03	22	80%	0.39	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.00	9	84%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	0.00	5	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05
Larry Hughes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Dean Oliver	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	12	54%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.23	0.01	-0.19	0.04	15	61%	0.03	3	-0.26	8	87%	0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.27	0.27	0.05	0.24	0.01	16	61%	0.33	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.08
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.21	0.21	0.03	0.19	0.00	3	71%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.08	0.02	15	67%	0.17	0	0.00	12	92%	0.10
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.08	-0.01	10	64%	0.12	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.10	0.00	9	56%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	0.03	21	34%	-0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.7	29.0	15.4	24.4	0.2	37.4	129.3
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -13.9%

MIL +26.5%

MIL +15.8%

MIL +25.5%

GSW -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.7	15.6	120.4	126.1	102.3
season	14.7	15.3		100.7	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.1		105.1	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	13.6	14.1	16.0	14.4
MIL	18.2	17.0	16.5	15.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bob Sura	43	43	0.28	-0.78	1.07	0.08	7	-11	18	14.5	14.3	0.21	16.4	17.0	-0.58
Troy Murphy	23	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-1	-2	13.9	14.6	-0.67	15.3	17.2	-1.90
Dean Oliver	29	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	1	-6	14.2	14.5	-0.26	15.1	17.5	-2.37
Adonal Foyle	35	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	4	-12	15.8	13.6	2.26	15.7	17.3	-1.66
Jason Richardson	81	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-8	12	14.6	13.3	1.25	17.0	14.6	2.47
Erick Dampier	57	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.51	4	-8	12	13.8	15.4	-1.63	17.3	15.7	1.66
Antawn Jamison	73	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-3	2	14.2	15.1	-0.93	17.1	15.5	1.67
Gilbert Arenas	64	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-5	6	14.5	14.2	0.26	17.5	15.1	2.37
Larry Hughes	60	60	-0.97	0.47	-1.43	-0.41	-19	15	-34	14.3	14.6	-0.24	16.6	17.0	-0.37

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	35	33	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.54	12	-8	20	15.4	17.5	-2.14	14.2	14.5	-0.32
Tim Thomas	41	43	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-7	18	15.3	17.9	-2.63	15.6	13.4	2.12
Sam Cassell	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-3	10	16.5	17.7	-1.24	14.4	14.7	-0.32
Ray Allen	69	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	5	-6	17.4	14.7	2.77	14.6	13.8	0.79
Anthony Mason	71	74	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	5	-6	17.1	15.3	1.81	14.3	15.1	-0.80
Michael Redd	47	47	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.10	6	-2	8	15.6	18.0	-2.40	15.3	13.5	1.82
Darvin Ham	20	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	5	-6	14.2	17.4	-3.23	12.3	14.9	-2.59
Jason Caffey	18	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	6	-8	18.3	16.4	1.93	12.4	14.9	-2.46
Joel Przybilla	38	37	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.07	-2	6	-8	17.4	16.2	1.18	14.1	14.6	-0.52
Glenn Robinson	45	46	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	13	-22	18.9	14.7	4.23	14.5	14.4	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.45,0.32,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	91.8%
DET 98, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.27,1	91.2%
UTA 95, LAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.22,0.19,0.54,0.45,0.23,1	91.1%