NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	91		Excitement	5.8 [615]		MVP	Anthony Tolliver (ATL): +15.0%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.9 [637]		LVP	George Hill (IND): -12.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	14	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Gerald Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.00	0.03	11	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul George	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	16	52%	0.06	4	-0.11	8	75%	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Lance Stephenson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
George Hill	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	15	35%	-0.08	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	3	150%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.02	-0.02	11	86%	0.20	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	14	50%	0.12	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	20	52%	0.08	2	-0.02	16	56%	-0.10
DeShawn Stevenson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	0.05	8	54%	-0.01	2	-0.06	8	87%	-0.01
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	1	33%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.8	28.8	16.4	32.2	2.6	46.2	153.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +38.3%

IND -0.8%

IND -2.3%

ATL +9.9%

ATL +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ATL	NBA	IND	ATL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	15.4	95.8	106.2	104.1
season	16.1	15.1		102.4	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.8	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.8	17.2	13.2	14.1	15.3
ATL	14.5	14.1	16.1	14.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	81	82	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-15	19	15.0	17.1	-2.11	15.1	13.7	1.37
Roy Hibbert	62	62	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-12	13	15.2	15.3	-0.09	15.1	14.4	0.73
Ian Mahinmi	23	24	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-4	-3	16.0	15.1	0.90	14.5	15.0	-0.57
David West	77	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-9	7	14.7	17.8	-3.16	15.0	14.4	0.58
Gerald Green	15	14	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.10	-14	3	-17	17.1	14.9	2.21	15.1	14.8	0.30
D.J. Augustin	27	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.13	-15	4	-19	16.9	14.6	2.26	13.5	15.4	-1.91
George Hill	81	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-6	1	14.8	17.8	-2.95	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Tyler Hansbrough	26	25	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	-1	-9	17.3	14.5	2.85	15.3	14.7	0.59
Paul George	83	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	-4	-3	14.9	18.0	-3.12	14.9	14.5	0.44

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	72	70	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.09	22	-11	33	15.2	13.9	1.29	15.9	13.6	2.33
Josh Smith	86	86	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-4	19	14.8	15.9	-1.13	15.1	16.7	-1.54
Anthony Tolliver	42	40	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	3	5	15.1	14.7	0.46	15.7	14.9	0.82
Kyle Korver	63	64	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.03	10	1	9	14.6	15.4	-0.77	14.7	16.5	-1.80
Jeff Teague	75	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	9	-7	14.8	15.2	-0.39	15.2	15.6	-0.44
Johan Petro	45	44	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	7	-3	14.9	14.8	0.09	15.8	14.8	1.01
Al Horford	60	59	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.22	-3	14	-17	14.6	15.3	-0.67	15.6	14.7	0.98
DeShawn Stevenson	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	11	-11	0.0	15.0	-15.04	8.0	15.4	-7.35
Ivan Johnson	36	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	14	-17	15.6	14.4	1.21	14.1	16.0	-1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.77,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.95,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.74,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.9,0.91,0.8,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	93.7%
UTA 98, LAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.94,1,1	93.2%
NYK 103, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.91,0.69,0.85,0.97,1,1	93.2%