NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	85		Excitement	7.9 [221]		MVP	Shane Battier (MIA): +15.9%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	4.2 [357]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -18.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.1	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	18	50%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.05	-0.03	0.02	5	62%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Serge Ibaka	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	10	33%	0.01	2	-0.14	7	71%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19	0.01	-0.20	-0.00	19	60%	0.01	5	-0.19	4	50%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	2	129%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	2	86%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	23	54%	0.21	4	-0.16	8	75%	0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	12	36%	-0.04	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.07
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.07	0.02	22	45%	0.07	5	-0.23	11	82%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	3.7	34.7	17.5	34.6	3.5	40.4	161.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -4.2%

MIA +50.9%

MIA +4.5%

OKC -3.7%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.6	15.6	95.5	101.1	102.8
season	14.7	15.5		107.9	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	17.6	16.6	16.0	12.3	15.5
MIA	18.4	16.1	15.3	17.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	39	41	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.03	8	-14	22	17.6	13.9	3.67	16.9	16.4	0.52
Daequan Cook	6	6	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-1	-4	14.8	15.6	-0.74	13.7	16.9	-3.19
Kendrick Perkins	61	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-9	12	16.1	14.4	1.71	17.1	15.5	1.61
Russell Westbrook	71	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-9	12	15.2	16.8	-1.64	17.2	14.4	2.75
Kevin Durant	73	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-3	0	15.2	17.2	-2.02	17.0	15.0	2.03
Nick Collison	26	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	5	-16	14.3	16.0	-1.67	15.9	16.9	-1.01
Derek Fisher	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	3	-12	15.8	15.2	0.60	16.5	16.8	-0.31
Thabo Sefolosha	55	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.13	-11	5	-16	15.0	16.4	-1.33	14.9	19.2	-4.25
James Harden	63	64	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.45	-5	-1	-4	15.3	16.0	-0.72	17.1	15.6	1.45

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	67	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-5	16	16.7	16.5	0.16	15.2	16.4	-1.22
LeBron James	81	82	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-2	10	16.6	17.3	-0.77	15.7	13.6	2.12
Udonis Haslem	30	30	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.14	10	-4	14	15.3	17.3	-2.02	14.9	15.9	-1.00
Dwyane Wade	85	83	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	4	-2	16.5	18.4	-1.86	15.7	13.0	2.71
Mario Chalmers	76	73	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	7	-8	16.9	15.1	1.86	15.8	14.1	1.71
James Jones	22	22	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	1	4	16.0	16.9	-0.91	15.6	15.5	0.14
Mike Miller	10	12	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	5	-4	17.7	16.5	1.19	15.3	15.6	-0.23
Norris Cole	11	12	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	5	-4	17.3	16.6	0.72	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Chris Bosh	68	66	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.22	-7	13	-20	17.1	15.4	1.70	15.5	15.7	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.75,0.89,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 109, CLE 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.81,0.85,0.94,1,1	92.1%
MIL 97, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.9,0.9,0.97,0.95,1	92.1%
ATL 102, NJN 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.99,1,1,1	92.1%