NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	6.6 [538]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +32.5%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	4.7 [514]		LVP	Desmond Mason (MIL): -23.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.08	0.13	-0.00	4	100%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	10	77%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	13	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.00	5	80%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.05	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	25%	-0.05	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	11	37%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.27,-0.27,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.23,-0.22,-0.24,-0.23	-0.21	-0.06	-0.03	23	39%	-0.13	4	-0.10	13	85%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.15	0.18	0.00	14	72%	0.32	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	16	71%	0.25	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.05
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	2	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,0	0.00	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	11	45%	0.11	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.04	6	62%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.6	27.2	16.6	22.4	2.5	35.5	132.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +57.7%

BOS +5.5%

MIL -19.9%

BOS +6.2%

BOS +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	17.4	13.1	15.5	103.2	108.4	104.0
season	16.0	14.4		104.4	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.0		104.1	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.5	13.9	20.1	17.7	17.4
BOS	11.5	13.8	13.5	13.6	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	65	66	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-11	16	17.7	16.8	0.87	12.6	14.2	-1.54
Marcus Fizer	32	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-11	16	16.5	17.9	-1.40	14.4	12.5	1.84
Dan Gadzuric	56	56	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-3	0	17.3	17.6	-0.27	13.1	13.1	0.09
Anthony Goldwire	33	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-6	6	17.1	17.5	-0.42	14.2	12.5	1.73
Mo Williams	61	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	0	-6	17.5	17.1	0.42	12.5	14.2	-1.73
Zaza Pachulia	36	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-4	2	18.1	16.9	1.16	14.1	12.5	1.53
Toni Kukoc	40	41	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	0	-6	16.0	18.4	-2.38	13.5	12.8	0.76
Joe Smith	62	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	5	-16	17.9	16.5	1.40	12.5	14.4	-1.84
Desmond Mason	85	86	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	6	-18	17.6	15.4	2.16	12.8	15.7	-2.83

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	71	70	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.39	10	-4	14	12.8	14.0	-1.14	16.9	18.7	-1.77
Paul Pierce	81	81	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.27	13	-7	20	13.1	13.3	-0.21	17.7	15.7	1.97
Mark Blount	51	50	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-1	8	13.4	12.8	0.62	18.8	15.8	2.92
Gary Payton	73	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-4	14	12.5	15.0	-2.52	17.1	18.3	-1.15
Al Jefferson	42	41	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.46	1	5	-4	14.3	12.2	2.12	17.5	17.3	0.17
Marcus Banks	19	18	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	8	-10	15.4	12.5	2.83	18.6	17.1	1.44
Kendrick Perkins	41	41	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.06	1	5	-4	13.2	13.0	0.16	17.0	17.7	-0.65
Raef LaFrentz	51	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.06	-1	7	-8	13.0	13.3	-0.31	17.3	17.5	-0.17
Tony Allen	12	12	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	13	-20	12.0	13.3	-1.27	13.2	18.0	-4.85
Delonte West	34	33	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.13	-2	8	-10	12.4	13.5	-1.13	17.5	17.3	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.9,0.9,0.97,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 109, LAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.27,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.85,0.88,0.98,0.96,1	92.7%
OKC 85, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.66,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.75,0.89,0.94,0.92,1	92.1%
MIL 108, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.3,0.16,0.35,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.34,0.68,0.9,0.96,0.96,1	92.1%