NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	87		Excitement	6.8 [358]		MVP	Marquis Daniels (BOS): +8.2%
Atlanta Hawks	80		Comeback	5.6 [110]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -14.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marquis Daniels	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	58%	0.10	1	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02
Brandon Bass	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Stiemsma	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.1,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.03	26	55%	0.23	8	-0.26	13	85%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	13	47%	0.06	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.04
Mickael Pietrus	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	7	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	35%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.09	-0.03	18	45%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.09	-0.06	21	38%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.02	-0.15	0.02	17	55%	0.04	3	-0.18	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.8	31.0	16.4	29.4	2.7	41.0	150.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +51.1%

BOS +7.3%

ATL -1.1%

ATL -7.5%

BOS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.0	17.2	15.6	93.5	87.0	102.8
season	15.5	15.7		99.4	102.5
opponent	15.9	16.2		99.5	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.0	18.1	13.2	11.4	14.0
ATL	17.5	17.0	16.8	17.4	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	32	31	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-4	15	12.4	14.8	-2.41	17.0	17.3	-0.29
Kevin Garnett	78	78	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.36	10	-3	13	13.4	16.9	-3.51	17.7	14.1	3.56
Avery Bradley	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	-1	9	14.0	13.6	0.40	16.8	19.7	-2.91
Paul Pierce	87	86	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	3	1	13.8	17.0	-3.22	17.0	20.0	-3.03
Mickael Pietrus	42	42	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	3	1	11.6	16.0	-4.41	16.1	18.0	-1.92
Sasha Pavlovic	22	23	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	4	-1	16.5	13.2	3.35	17.3	17.1	0.25
Ryan Hollins	10	11	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	2	3	15.3	13.8	1.47	20.6	16.7	3.95
Keyon Dooling	37	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	7	-7	15.5	13.0	2.53	19.1	15.9	3.25
Greg Stiemsma	15	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.00	-5	12	-17	16.7	13.5	3.27	14.9	17.6	-2.64
Brandon Bass	60	58	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.08	-5	12	-17	14.7	12.7	2.05	16.7	18.0	-1.37

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	70	72	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.01	4	-11	15	17.4	16.5	0.93	14.4	12.6	1.77
Jason Collins	42	44	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-10	13	17.3	17.1	0.23	14.0	13.9	0.11
Jannero Pargo	7	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-4	1	21.9	16.8	5.08	15.2	13.9	1.26
Tracy McGrady	10	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-1	-5	20.9	16.7	4.19	13.5	14.0	-0.55
Willie Green	27	26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-1	-5	17.7	16.9	0.77	13.4	14.2	-0.84
Joe Johnson	74	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-4	1	16.6	19.6	-2.97	13.9	14.2	-0.22
Jeff Teague	80	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-6	5	16.4	22.5	-6.14	14.2	12.5	1.64
Kirk Hinrich	71	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-6	5	16.5	19.3	-2.81	14.0	14.1	-0.14
Ivan Johnson	39	39	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	2	-11	16.6	17.6	-0.95	13.8	14.1	-0.29
Marvin Williams	40	38	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	6	-19	18.9	15.8	3.03	13.4	14.4	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.07,0.11,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 117, IND 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.68,0.53,0.31,0.38,0.2,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	92.9%
POR 115, MIL 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.55,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.21,0.07,0.04,0	92.8%
DEN 94, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.09,0	92.7%