NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	115		Excitement	7.0 [410]		MVP	Greg Anthony (POR): +26.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	4.8 [225]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -10.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Anthony	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.10	0.16	-0.00	10	70%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.22	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22	0.18	0.03	-0.01	12	83%	0.22	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.05
Jermaine O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	2	90%	0.11	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Arvydas Sabonis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Damon Stoudamire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	62%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Scottie Pippen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	2	80%	0.04	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.06

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.07	0.02	16	79%	0.29	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	11	61%	0.16	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.09	-0.06	0.03	19	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Scott Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	17	49%	0.08	3	-0.09	3	67%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	5	40%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	25.2	15.5	24.9	1.8	41.4	135.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +13.9%

POR +16.9%

POR +9.8%

POR +7.3%

POR +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIL	NBA	POR	MIL	NBA
this game	16.4	14.8	15.2	125.0	119.4	101.7
season	15.9	14.9		105.9	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		105.1	99.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.0	17.5	17.9	15.3	16.4
MIL	15.0	14.5	15.6	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	48	48	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.27	20	-16	36	17.4	15.2	2.23	15.6	13.9	1.67
Detlef Schrempf	42	43	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.36	15	-11	26	16.2	16.5	-0.29	15.0	14.5	0.51
Greg Anthony	49	50	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.35	14	-10	24	16.5	16.2	0.30	15.2	14.3	0.96
Bonzi Wells	45	46	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	0	4	15.2	17.5	-2.38	14.8	14.7	0.15
Jermaine O'Neal	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	4	-4	17.6	15.7	1.92	15.5	14.4	1.11
Rasheed Wallace	67	68	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.21	-3	7	-10	16.0	17.4	-1.36	13.9	17.2	-3.32
Arvydas Sabonis	35	36	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.04	-2	6	-8	15.4	17.0	-1.61	15.4	14.4	1.09
Steven Smith	49	49	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	8	-12	16.9	15.7	1.17	14.3	15.3	-1.08
Damon Stoudamire	43	43	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	14	-24	16.2	16.5	-0.30	14.3	15.2	-0.96
Scottie Pippen	51	51	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.09	-14	18	-32	16.4	16.3	0.14	14.5	15.1	-0.67

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	50	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-3	2	15.6	13.8	1.83	17.9	14.7	3.18
Vinny Del Negro	42	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-4	4	14.9	14.7	0.24	15.1	17.4	-2.25
Glenn Robinson	68	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-8	12	14.9	14.4	0.46	16.8	15.1	1.74
Tim Thomas	42	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	0	-4	14.1	15.3	-1.24	13.6	18.5	-4.90
Sam Cassell	78	78	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-5	6	14.0	18.9	-4.88	16.1	17.7	-1.59
Ervin Johnson	71	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	0	-4	14.6	15.4	-0.83	16.9	14.5	2.39
Ray Allen	70	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.37	-2	-2	0	15.1	13.9	1.14	16.7	15.3	1.42
Danny Manning	44	44	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.35	-14	10	-24	15.4	14.2	1.21	16.7	16.1	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.55,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.54,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.21,0.07,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 115, ATL 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.37,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.7,0.85,0.67,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.54,0.25,0.06,0.03,0,0	92.8%
BOS 87, ATL 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.07,0.11,0,0	92.8%
DEN 94, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.09,0	91.9%