NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	7.3 [393]		MVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): +27.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	91		Comeback	4.7 [143]		LVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): -26.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.11	-0.03	11	77%	0.27	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	17	67%	0.17	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	12	64%	0.18	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.04
DerMarr Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	64%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Nene	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	4	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26	-0.17	-0.09	-0.00	13	20%	-0.24	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	4	80%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.04	0.01	12	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	11	52%	0.02	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.04
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.13	-0.00	11	64%	0.01	3	-0.14	6	67%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	8	30%	-0.09	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	16	44%	-0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.10
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.08	0.00	7	33%	-0.12	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.6	30.2	15.6	24.2	1.8	35.7	133.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.0%

DEN +5.2%

MEM -9.6%

DEN +11.6%

DEN +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	15.5	98.9	96.8	104.0
season	14.8	16.4		103.8	103.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		101.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	14.4	13.5	14.4	14.1
MEM	16.7	14.4	18.3	16.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	66	66	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-8	19	13.9	14.6	-0.69	15.9	17.5	-1.59
Kenyon Martin	53	53	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.53	5	-2	7	14.5	13.6	0.96	17.2	15.3	1.93
Marcus Camby	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	3	-3	14.3	13.7	0.60	16.5	16.1	0.38
DerMarr Johnson	37	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	-3	9	13.4	14.5	-1.10	15.5	16.9	-1.43
Andre Miller	70	70	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	6	-9	14.5	13.0	1.45	16.7	15.3	1.41
Earl Boykins	55	53	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.34	-3	6	-9	14.4	13.7	0.74	16.5	16.3	0.20
Eduardo Najera	29	27	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.06	3	0	3	13.7	14.3	-0.60	16.1	16.5	-0.38
Wesley Person	45	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	3	-3	14.1	14.1	-0.07	18.2	14.8	3.38
Bryon Russell	12	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	5	-7	13.8	14.1	-0.31	12.6	16.9	-4.36
Nene	42	41	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	5	-7	13.6	14.5	-0.96	15.3	17.2	-1.93

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	39	41	0.24	-0.74	0.97	-0.12	12	-15	27	15.2	17.2	-1.97	14.9	13.5	1.45
Bonzi Wells	36	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	0	-3	15.7	16.8	-1.07	14.1	14.1	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	61	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	1	-5	17.5	14.3	3.21	14.3	13.8	0.48
Brian Cardinal	55	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-6	9	15.3	17.9	-2.63	14.4	13.7	0.66
Shane Battier	78	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-3	3	16.5	15.9	0.61	14.2	13.6	0.56
Mike Miller	73	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	3	-9	16.7	15.1	1.60	14.1	14.2	-0.11
Pau Gasol	72	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	2	-7	16.3	16.8	-0.51	13.8	15.3	-1.52
Jason Williams	56	56	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.30	-12	9	-21	17.0	15.5	1.53	13.4	15.1	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 106, CHA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.25,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	93.0%
BOS 87, ATL 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.07,0.11,0,0	92.7%
MIA 106, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.15,0.06,0.02,0	92.3%