NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	7.4 [340]		MVP	Marreese Speights (GSW): +29.5%
Charlotte Hornets	101		Comeback	5.1 [506]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -21.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marreese Speights	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.13	0.16	-0.00	20	63%	0.33	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	22	39%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.04	20	55%	0.03	4	-0.07	7	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Brandon Rush	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.16	-0.02	0.01	12	77%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	16	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	10	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.05	0.02	8	58%	0.00	1	-0.03	10	70%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	8	52%	0.05	6	-0.24	5	100%	0.03
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	16	36%	-0.06	4	-0.15	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	29.5	16.3	22.5	2.5	36.4	134.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +23.3%

CHA -11.3%

GSW +21.5%

GSW +17.6%

CHA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CHA	NBA	GSW	CHA	NBA
this game	13.5	15.3	15.1	106.0	101.0	104.2
season	13.6	15.6		109.2	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.5		102.6	99.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	15.1	13.8	10.4	13.5
CHA	14.5	14.2	15.0	17.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	69	67	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.24	16	-11	27	12.4	16.0	-3.59	15.9	14.1	1.73
Marreese Speights	51	52	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-2	9	12.9	14.1	-1.18	15.1	15.5	-0.38
Andre Iguodala	67	67	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	3	-1	13.1	14.4	-1.35	15.8	14.2	1.59
Klay Thompson	73	71	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.34	3	2	1	13.1	14.6	-1.47	15.7	14.3	1.41
Draymond Green	68	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	4	-3	13.5	13.5	-0.02	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Harrison Barnes	59	61	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.10	5	0	5	14.0	12.8	1.21	15.2	15.3	-0.09
Shaun Livingston	29	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	7	-9	14.4	13.1	1.31	14.3	15.7	-1.39
Brandon Rush	37	38	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	10	-15	15.0	12.7	2.31	13.4	16.4	-3.04
Andrew Bogut	47	47	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.05	-2	7	-9	14.7	12.5	2.23	15.7	14.9	0.84

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bismack Biyombo	29	28	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.08	3	-8	11	14.3	15.7	-1.32	14.7	13.0	1.71
Jason Maxiell	33	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	15.0	15.4	-0.37	14.5	13.1	1.35
Gerald Henderson	33	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.16	-7	2	-9	14.8	15.5	-0.69	14.1	13.2	0.87
PJ Hairston	40	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-1	-3	14.8	15.6	-0.72	13.9	13.3	0.60
Brian Roberts	62	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.48	1	-6	7	15.4	15.0	0.41	13.1	14.1	-0.96
Al Jefferson	70	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	15.9	13.9	1.92	13.2	14.2	-0.92
Lance Stephenson	78	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	15.3	15.1	0.24	13.2	14.8	-1.61
Cody Zeller	66	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	-1	-3	15.6	14.7	0.87	13.3	14.0	-0.70
Kemba Walker	89	91	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	0	-5	15.2	15.8	-0.60	13.4	14.9	-1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.25,0.15,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 94, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.09,0	93.0%
CHI 115, ATL 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.37,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.7,0.85,0.67,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.54,0.25,0.06,0.03,0,0	92.8%
BOS 87, ATL 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.07,0.11,0,0	91.8%