NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	102		Excitement	4.3 [986]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +16.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Comeback	1.3 [1058]		LVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): -7.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.03	13	55%	0.12	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Sam Young	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	0.12	-0.03	0.09	15	77%	0.10	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	5	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Shane Battier	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Zach Randolph	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	13	39%	-0.03	2	-0.03	12	92%	0.03
Darrell Arthur	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	0.05	9	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	8	87%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.02	-0.06	18	57%	0.19	2	-0.03	10	80%	0.02
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	7	107%	0.17	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	9	72%	0.11	2	-0.02	11	100%	0.05
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	83%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	3	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	20	52%	0.05	4	-0.08	6	83%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.1	3.5	31.5	18.7	28.3	3.4	43.5	160.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +41.4%

OKC +3.1%

MEM -0.2%

OKC +7.5%

MEM -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	16.3	14.3	15.5	108.5	118.1	105.7
season	15.5	15.0		106.1	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.4	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.4	16.0	18.7	14.7	16.3
OKC	12.4	15.3	17.3	13.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Young	47	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-5	1	17.2	15.4	1.81	16.3	12.5	3.80
Tony Allen	53	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-6	3	17.1	15.2	1.89	15.1	13.3	1.84
Darrell Arthur	42	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-1	-7	15.0	17.4	-2.37	13.5	15.0	-1.59
Greivis Vasquez	15	16	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	2	-13	14.3	16.7	-2.35	12.9	14.6	-1.75
Mike Conley	79	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-11	13	16.7	14.3	2.35	14.6	12.9	1.75
Shane Battier	30	32	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	0	-9	15.3	16.8	-1.48	11.9	15.6	-3.72
O.J. Mayo	58	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-7	5	15.3	17.9	-2.52	13.4	15.8	-2.39
Marc Gasol	73	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-7	5	16.4	16.1	0.21	13.9	15.7	-1.78
Zach Randolph	73	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-1	-7	17.0	13.9	3.16	15.2	11.2	4.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	57	57	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.11	11	-2	13	14.4	14.2	0.14	16.8	15.5	1.31
Nick Collison	49	47	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.02	12	-3	15	14.0	14.7	-0.77	17.3	15.3	1.98
James Harden	61	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	5	-1	14.5	14.1	0.41	15.2	18.3	-3.07
Kevin Durant	67	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	8	-7	14.6	13.7	0.88	16.2	16.6	-0.43
Russell Westbrook	65	63	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.30	0	9	-9	14.5	13.9	0.58	16.2	16.5	-0.36
Thabo Sefolosha	44	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	0	9	13.1	15.4	-2.33	16.4	16.2	0.20
Eric Maynor	29	31	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.06	9	0	9	13.9	14.5	-0.58	16.5	16.2	0.36
Kendrick Perkins	61	62	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.40	-7	16	-23	15.5	12.1	3.45	16.2	16.5	-0.34
Daequan Cook	20	21	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	3	3	13.0	14.7	-1.63	17.7	15.9	1.81
Nazr Mohammed	17	16	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	9	-9	14.1	14.4	-0.33	14.5	16.7	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 82, UTA 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
POR 75, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
UTA 90, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	95.4%