NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	90		Excitement	4.9 [816]		MVP	Steve Francis (HOU): +12.3%
Houston Rockets	99		Comeback	1.5 [385]		LVP	Kenny Thomas (HOU): -14.1%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Adam Keefe	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	19	48%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Bryon Russell	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	15	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
John Stockton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	19	55%	0.03	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Greg Ostertag	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	54%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Padgett	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Lewis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.02	17	62%	0.16	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.02	10	84%	0.16	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.04	14	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.06	11	46%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	4	58%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	6	19%	-0.09	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.6	28.0	18.4	30.5	2.4	36.2	146.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +66.4%

UTA -0.1%

UTA -8.3%

UTA -8.7%

HOU +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	HOU	NBA	UTA	HOU	NBA
this game	17.6	14.5	15.2	101.1	108.8	101.7
season	16.3	15.4		104.5	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.2		103.5	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.6	23.1	15.8	14.5	17.6
HOU	13.2	12.9	15.5	16.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	28	29	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-12	15	16.6	18.0	-1.32	15.1	14.2	0.86
Adam Keefe	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.15	5	-14	19	14.1	18.0	-3.89	15.8	14.3	1.48
Scott Padgett	17	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-11	13	18.8	17.3	1.50	15.2	14.3	0.93
Quincy Lewis	20	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-6	3	19.0	17.1	1.93	13.7	14.7	-1.01
Jacque Vaughn	31	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-5	1	16.8	18.0	-1.19	14.2	14.6	-0.39
Armen Gilliam	30	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.00	-9	0	-9	18.3	17.2	1.08	12.8	15.3	-2.51
Karl Malone	64	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-5	1	17.0	19.0	-2.07	14.8	13.5	1.33
John Stockton	61	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.17	-5	-4	-1	17.5	17.6	-0.08	14.9	13.6	1.32
Howard Eisley	66	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-3	-3	17.5	17.7	-0.25	14.4	14.6	-0.14
Greg Ostertag	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.15	-10	1	-11	18.7	15.7	2.98	14.3	14.7	-0.44
Bryon Russell	64	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	5	-19	17.4	17.9	-0.46	14.4	14.7	-0.36

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	83	81	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	1	7	14.5	14.0	0.53	16.7	26.0	-9.28
Moochie Norris	34	32	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	1	7	13.9	14.8	-0.96	19.9	16.2	3.63
Cuttino Mobley	59	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	5	-1	14.7	14.1	0.55	17.6	17.5	0.13
Kelvin Cato	69	65	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	3	3	14.9	13.3	1.60	16.2	21.2	-4.95
Matt Bullard	29	29	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	1	7	13.0	15.2	-2.18	18.1	17.3	0.82
Kenny Thomas	56	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	4	1	13.7	15.7	-1.91	18.8	15.3	3.54
Steve Francis	63	64	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	4	1	14.8	13.8	1.01	17.6	17.4	0.27
Walt Williams	62	60	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	8	-7	15.2	13.0	2.18	17.3	18.1	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MIL 88, IND 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
ORL 84, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.66,0.74,0.87,0.94,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%