NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	87		Excitement	7.0 [433]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +31.1%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	5.9 [347]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -17.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.02	-0.02	12	72%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	3	89%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Delonte West	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	-0.04	0.07	-0.04	9	50%	0.11	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	43%	0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.10	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	13	44%	-0.02	3	-0.07	8	37%	-0.08
Paul Pierce	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.14	-0.02	12	48%	-0.02	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.24,0.24,0.31	0.31	0.11	0.23	0.03	20	67%	0.44	5	-0.13	9	67%	-0.04
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	9	58%	0.14	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	19	64%	0.23	3	-0.09	15	53%	-0.11
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	4	37%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	3.5	38.2	15.5	28.4	3.4	33.4	151.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +11.4%

MIA +4.6%

MIA +28.2%

MIA +6.4%

BOS -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	16.5	15.5	98.9	110.2	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		104.8	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		102.3	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	16.3	17.2	16.1	16.2
MIA	18.2	15.0	16.3	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	30	31	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.06	4	-14	18	16.5	16.1	0.48	17.1	16.2	0.90
Rajon Rondo	55	55	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-13	16	16.4	15.9	0.49	16.6	16.4	0.19
Jeff Green	44	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-7	4	14.9	17.5	-2.61	16.7	16.3	0.41
Glen Davis	30	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.01	-3	-7	4	16.1	16.3	-0.23	16.6	16.5	0.11
Ray Allen	81	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-6	2	16.3	15.1	1.17	16.6	15.5	1.11
Nenad Krstic	29	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	0	-10	17.8	15.4	2.40	16.2	16.6	-0.42
Paul Pierce	65	66	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.15	-15	5	-20	16.3	16.0	0.29	16.0	18.1	-2.17
Kevin Garnett	68	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	-2	-6	16.5	15.4	1.06	16.8	15.3	1.55
Delonte West	38	37	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.31	-14	4	-18	15.3	16.9	-1.54	16.0	16.9	-0.93

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	40	41	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	0	10	15.6	17.2	-1.63	15.7	16.7	-0.95
Chris Bosh	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.17	14	-4	18	16.8	14.7	2.13	16.0	17.1	-1.10
LeBron James	83	84	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.16	14	-4	18	16.4	17.8	-1.37	16.4	12.0	4.42
Dwyane Wade	77	78	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.28	8	2	6	17.0	13.4	3.60	16.2	16.1	0.13
Joel Anthony	42	43	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	5	0	17.2	15.8	1.39	15.7	16.7	-1.01
Mike Miller	7	6	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.03	5	5	0	13.4	16.8	-3.35	16.7	16.2	0.48
Mario Chalmers	43	43	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	10	-10	16.0	17.0	-1.00	15.9	16.6	-0.70
Mike Bibby	36	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	14	-18	17.1	16.1	1.06	16.8	15.8	0.95
Juwan Howard	37	35	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	12	-14	15.8	17.0	-1.21	17.1	15.6	1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.37,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 108, OKC 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.63,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.77,0.84,1	92.3%
PHX 79, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.36,0.78,0.84,1	92.2%
HOU 109, ORL 116	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.43,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.11,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.54,0.77,0.98,1	91.5%