NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	81		Excitement	4.0 [1064]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +15.3%
Boston Celtics	97		Comeback	1.8 [716]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -24.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.00	0.03	9	89%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	7	86%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	19	51%	0.10	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	37%	-0.06	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.12	-0.07	0.06	16	38%	-0.13	4	-0.11	7	43%	-0.06

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.02	0.03	20	67%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.01	-0.04	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.15	0.02	0.11	20	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	11	56%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	7	43%	-0.03	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.7	33.1	18.7	30.3	3.4	31.6	148.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.0%

MIA -0.7%

MIA -1.8%

BOS +11.8%

BOS +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	18.4	16.1	15.5	96.4	116.9	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.6		99.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	19.2	18.9	18.5	17.2	18.4
BOS	15.1	17.1	14.3	17.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	9	10	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.10	6	-22	28	22.0	18.0	4.01	15.3	16.2	-0.86
Mario Chalmers	53	52	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-18	20	18.2	18.8	-0.67	16.9	14.7	2.21
Joel Anthony	62	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.21	5	-21	26	18.2	19.1	-0.91	17.3	12.4	4.93
James Jones	45	44	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-17	18	18.8	17.9	0.92	16.8	15.2	1.56
Chris Bosh	55	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.11	-16	0	-16	19.0	17.4	1.58	15.1	17.8	-2.72
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	18	18	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.16	-19	3	-22	19.7	18.1	1.59	13.1	16.9	-3.77
Mike Bibby	31	31	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	2	-20	18.8	18.2	0.67	14.7	16.9	-2.21
Dwyane Wade	71	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.07	-20	4	-24	17.7	22.5	-4.88	16.1	15.8	0.35
LeBron James	76	75	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.01	-21	5	-26	17.9	22.9	-4.93	16.1	16.1	-0.07

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	66	69	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.00	21	-5	26	15.9	16.8	-0.89	18.2	19.6	-1.44
Kevin Garnett	67	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-1	18	16.1	15.7	0.46	17.6	21.8	-4.27
Rajon Rondo	62	63	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.09	20	-4	24	16.4	15.0	1.36	17.9	20.0	-2.05
Paul Pierce	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	4	8	15.9	16.9	-0.95	18.0	21.2	-3.21
Jermaine O'Neal	40	39	0.34	0.17	0.17	-0.05	13	3	10	14.7	17.3	-2.67	18.2	18.6	-0.35
Jeff Green	35	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	17	-18	16.4	15.8	0.54	19.3	17.7	1.60
Shaquille O'Neal	13	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	14	-12	15.7	16.1	-0.44	22.4	17.6	4.73
Glen Davis	17	18	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	16	-16	16.8	15.9	0.89	21.4	17.6	3.78
Delonte West	42	42	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	20	-24	16.8	15.3	1.47	18.6	18.3	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, MIA 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
LAC 98, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
CHA 84, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%