NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	103		Excitement	4.3 [994]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +14.3%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.5 [234]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -8.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.02	16	62%	0.18	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.03	-0.02	10	65%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	14	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
Al Horford	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.01	-0.05	14	53%	0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	12	48%	0.08	2	-0.04	7	29%	-0.03
Josh Powell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	-0.01	0.06	23	68%	0.25	8	-0.16	22	64%	-0.06
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.13	-0.00	0.06	18	67%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	30%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.4	34.4	19.4	30.4	3.4	35.3	155.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +36.7%

ATL +5.9%

ORL -8.0%

ATL +13.9%

ATL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.2	15.5	117.0	105.7	105.7
season	16.5	15.2		104.0	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.5		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.2	15.0	19.4	18.7	17.5
ORL	15.5	17.8	14.9	12.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	50	51	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.01	21	-11	32	16.1	19.5	-3.39	16.3	13.6	2.74
Joe Johnson	82	81	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-3	16	17.7	14.8	2.91	15.7	9.1	6.56
Al Horford	82	82	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	2	6	17.4	20.2	-2.81	15.4	12.5	2.88
Jason Collins	30	32	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-4	18	17.1	17.8	-0.68	17.1	14.1	3.00
Josh Smith	64	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.15	6	4	2	17.9	16.5	1.44	14.2	17.8	-3.60
Jamal Crawford	60	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	11	-12	17.9	16.7	1.22	14.1	17.3	-3.21
Josh Powell	14	14	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	6	-2	16.5	17.7	-1.24	16.8	14.9	1.91
Marvin Williams	30	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	10	-10	16.7	18.0	-1.23	14.1	15.8	-1.75
Etan Thomas	13	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	14	-18	17.3	17.6	-0.28	13.7	15.4	-1.66
Zaza Pachulia	15	14	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.24	-11	21	-32	22.9	16.5	6.41	13.8	15.4	-1.66

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	35	36	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.31	14	-24	38	13.7	16.2	-2.44	17.1	17.9	-0.83
Gilbert Arenas	24	24	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.07	0	-10	10	14.7	15.3	-0.59	15.9	18.2	-2.24
Ryan Anderson	45	45	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-14	18	14.1	16.3	-2.19	17.9	17.1	0.79
Quentin Richardson	14	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-7	4	14.6	15.3	-0.73	19.4	17.2	2.17
Brandon Bass	31	33	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.13	-20	10	-30	17.5	13.9	3.50	15.3	18.9	-3.59
Jason Richardson	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	2	-14	15.5	13.3	2.20	17.9	15.9	2.01
Dwight Howard	83	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.23	-10	0	-10	15.4	11.0	4.43	18.1	11.0	7.11
Hedo Turkoglu	69	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	3	-16	15.1	15.6	-0.51	17.3	18.6	-1.29
Jameer Nelson	64	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	0	-10	15.3	14.7	0.59	18.2	15.9	2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.27,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 115, GSW 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.8%
SAC 113, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
LAL 112, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0	95.3%