NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	6.4 [541]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +17.7%
Boston Celtics	92		Comeback	37.6 [30]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -27.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	16	56%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	14	56%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	52%	0.05	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.10	-0.03	15	48%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	11	66%	0.18	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.14,0.13	0.13	-0.06	0.19	-0.01	11	48%	0.25	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.06
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	6	57%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	10	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,-0.02,0	-0.00	0.09	-0.06	0.03	16	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27	-0.27	-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	12	25%	-0.19	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.8	30.0	19.8	28.6	2.8	44.5	152.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -11.7%

BOS +18.4%

BOS +37.8%

BOS +2.1%

BOS +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.8	17.2	15.5	104.8	108.2	106.4
season	15.3	15.8		107.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.7	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	17.6	15.6	18.5	16.8
BOS	17.5	18.4	15.7	17.5	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	20	19	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.12	-1	-3	2	20.8	15.6	5.21	18.6	16.8	1.78
Mickael Pietrus	33	34	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.13	-2	-2	0	17.3	16.5	0.77	15.9	18.2	-2.27
Marcin Gortat	18	19	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	-2	0	17.9	16.5	1.41	15.6	17.7	-2.15
Tony Battie	14	16	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.11	-3	-1	-2	20.9	16.0	4.91	17.6	17.2	0.47
Courtney Lee	19	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-2	0	18.3	16.4	1.92	18.9	16.8	2.15
JJ Redick	54	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.44	0	-4	4	15.2	19.8	-4.61	17.2	17.4	-0.22
Rashard Lewis	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-3	2	16.0	20.9	-4.91	16.9	18.8	-1.89
Hedo Turkoglu	63	63	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-3	2	17.3	15.4	1.87	17.8	15.5	2.30
Rafer Alston	62	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.47	-2	-2	0	16.0	19.0	-3.00	17.4	16.9	0.45
Dwight Howard	67	68	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.47	-6	2	-8	16.3	18.9	-2.57	17.2	17.4	-0.13

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	76	74	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.34	16	-12	28	17.2	17.8	-0.59	16.6	18.9	-2.35
Rajon Rondo	54	54	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.49	9	-5	14	16.9	17.9	-1.08	14.8	20.4	-5.60
Ray Allen	74	74	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.33	9	-5	14	16.8	20.5	-3.79	16.3	21.1	-4.84
Paul Pierce	74	72	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.52	1	3	-2	17.1	18.0	-0.86	15.9	22.5	-6.61
Kendrick Perkins	66	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	0	4	16.5	19.7	-3.14	16.2	18.7	-2.51
Eddie House	32	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	5	-6	18.1	16.8	1.31	18.4	15.8	2.62
Stephon Marbury	23	26	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	10	-16	17.5	17.1	0.38	19.2	15.8	3.47
Brian Scalabrine	28	27	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.04	-11	15	-26	19.1	16.4	2.72	21.3	14.7	6.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.21,0.33,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.15,0.37,0.33,0.73,1	92.6%
TOR 101, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.58,1	92.4%
ORL 109, MIL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.42,1	91.9%