NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	109		Excitement	8.0 [242]		MVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): +43.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	115		Comeback	25.5 [102]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -6.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	16	62%	0.17	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	20	57%	0.20	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.00
Beno Udrih	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.00	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	8	64%	0.10	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Doron Lamb	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0,0	0.09	-0.11	-0.01	17	59%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.08
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.11,0.11,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	19	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle O'Quinn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.43	0.43	0.17	0.27	0.01	22	75%	0.58	6	-0.14	8	100%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.12,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.13	-0.00	13	67%	0.26	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.10	-0.00	13	48%	0.16	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	37%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	10	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	15	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	29.5	15.5	22.2	2.0	35.2	130.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +36.3%

MIL +11.9%

MIL +2.8%

MIL +2.2%

ORL -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.4	15.4	109.0	115.0	104.1
season	15.5	14.7		100.3	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.3		103.9	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.7	13.5	16.2	15.6	14.4
MIL	13.9	15.3	15.1	13.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tobias Harris	65	66	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.11	2	-8	10	15.0	13.3	1.75	14.7	13.8	0.89
Kyle O'Quinn	11	12	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.01	5	-11	16	13.1	14.6	-1.49	13.2	14.5	-1.38
Beno Udrih	38	37	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.13	-2	-4	2	14.7	14.2	0.47	14.4	14.4	-0.00
Doron Lamb	15	14	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-6	6	14.5	14.4	0.13	13.1	14.6	-1.52
Maurice Harkless	89	89	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-2	-2	14.3	15.3	-0.96	14.6	12.7	1.86
Jameer Nelson	82	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.38	-6	0	-6	14.0	16.6	-2.60	14.7	13.0	1.68
Nikola Vucevic	87	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	2	-10	14.3	15.2	-0.93	14.6	12.8	1.76
Arron Afflalo	82	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.34	-9	3	-12	14.4	14.7	-0.30	14.6	13.3	1.28
E'Twaun Moore	31	31	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.43	-8	2	-10	15.2	14.1	1.17	12.2	15.4	-3.22

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	48	46	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.38	15	-9	24	14.1	14.6	-0.49	15.4	13.6	1.84
Larry Sanders	68	69	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.34	14	-8	22	14.5	14.0	0.51	14.1	15.2	-1.12
Monta Ellis	82	85	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-4	14	14.3	14.6	-0.28	14.5	13.9	0.65
Ersan Ilyasova	73	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	1	4	15.2	12.2	3.01	14.1	15.4	-1.30
Brandon Jennings	92	92	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	3	0	14.3	15.6	-1.35	14.2	17.4	-3.21
Marquis Daniels	44	44	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	4	-2	14.7	14.1	0.54	14.4	14.4	-0.02
John Henson	13	12	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	12	-18	13.6	14.5	-0.88	14.0	14.5	-0.48
Ekpe Udoh	32	31	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.02	-8	14	-22	14.0	14.5	-0.51	15.2	14.1	1.12
Mike Dunleavy	48	47	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.15	-5	11	-16	13.6	15.1	-1.45	14.4	14.4	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 88, TOR 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.33,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.15,0.41,1	92.1%
CHA 100, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.36,0.21,0.43,0.47,1	92.0%
ORL 88, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.21,0.33,0.74,1	91.9%