NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	84		Excitement	6.5 [510]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +15.8%
Atlanta Hawks	74		Comeback	1.9 [1055]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -12.9%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.16	0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.01	0.11	-0.04	22	51%	0.21	3	-0.05	9	67%	-0.04
Delonte West	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.11	0.01	13	62%	0.22	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03
Wally Szczerbiak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	13	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.03	11	55%	0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	18	44%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.02	16	59%	0.08	2	-0.06	12	83%	-0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	15	40%	-0.05	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	33.7	20.7	31.7	2.8	36.0	155.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +74.3%

ATL -22.5%

CLE +23.7%

ATL -23.3%

ATL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ATL	NBA	CLE	ATL	NBA
this game	18.3	15.8	15.5	98.8	88.1	106.4
season	16.9	15.8		110.6	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.2		106.0	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	18.8	17.3	17.4	19.6	18.3
ATL	14.6	14.7	18.6	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	57	57	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.14	18	-8	26	18.9	17.0	1.93	17.4	12.4	5.02
Delonte West	77	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	3	4	18.5	15.9	2.67	16.2	10.9	5.36
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	55	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.16	10	0	10	18.0	18.9	-0.94	16.1	15.1	0.97
LeBron James	78	76	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	9	-8	18.2	19.9	-1.70	15.4	19.5	-4.12
Joe Smith	35	34	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	6	-2	18.3	18.3	-0.06	15.8	15.8	0.03
Ben Wallace	23	22	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	0	10	18.6	18.2	0.43	16.9	15.4	1.48
Wally Szczerbiak	28	28	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	1	8	16.9	19.0	-2.04	14.7	16.3	-1.64
Anderson Varejao	57	57	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	14	-18	18.5	17.9	0.65	15.0	17.4	-2.35
Daniel Gibson	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.08	3	7	-4	15.9	18.5	-2.67	10.9	16.2	-5.36
Sasha Pavlovic	7	7	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	18	-26	20.1	18.1	2.01	11.3	16.2	-4.90

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario West	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-10	10	24.0	15.7	8.33	0.0	18.5	-18.51
Maurice Evans	22	22	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-11	12	14.3	16.3	-1.97	18.8	18.1	0.71
Marvin Williams	53	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-8	6	16.2	15.1	1.07	18.5	18.0	0.51
Al Horford	33	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.07	-6	-4	-2	16.7	15.2	1.52	18.2	18.3	-0.10
Zaza Pachulia	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-2	-6	15.6	16.0	-0.42	18.5	18.0	0.51
Ronald Murray	54	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-7	-3	-4	15.9	15.6	0.27	18.5	18.0	0.50
Joe Johnson	77	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-5	0	15.6	17.4	-1.81	18.2	19.3	-1.08
Josh Smith	80	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	-3	-4	15.7	18.0	-2.34	18.1	20.6	-2.45
Mike Bibby	55	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.12	-16	6	-22	15.7	15.9	-0.19	18.2	18.4	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.11,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 77, NYK 67	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.02,0,0	93.6%
SAC 115, MEM 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.09,0.1,0.14,0,0.02,0.01,0	93.2%
LAL 93, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.21,0.1,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.9%