NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	77		Excitement	6.5 [497]		MVP	Charlie Ward (SAS): +5.2%
New York Knicks	67		Comeback	2.0 [304]		LVP	Allan Houston (NYK): -26.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.06	0.00	7	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	13	44%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	0.01	0.01	11	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	24	53%	0.08	6	-0.17	9	67%	-0.02
Malik Rose	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	5	21%	-0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Devin Brown	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	6	-0.20	2	50%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Frank Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	6	37%	-0.06	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.02	21	40%	-0.12	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.04
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.24	-0.04	-0.02	13	24%	-0.11	6	-0.15	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	31.3	16.6	30.2	3.0	26.2	136.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.9%

SAS +3.9%

SAS +36.4%

NYK -25.8%

SAS +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NYK	NBA	SAS	NYK	NBA
this game	17.2	14.3	15.7	83.7	73.6	100.5
season	15.9	15.5		100.1	98.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		100.8	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.7	18.3	17.2	19.3	17.2
NYK	11.9	13.0	16.3	16.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	58	59	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.06	20	-10	30	17.5	16.6	0.92	15.2	12.6	2.62
Bruce Bowen	74	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.11	18	-8	26	17.7	15.1	2.59	14.2	14.5	-0.33
Manu Ginobili	67	68	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.16	14	-4	18	17.0	17.8	-0.88	15.2	11.6	3.61
Tim Duncan	83	80	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	3	4	17.3	15.8	1.57	14.3	13.7	0.61
Tony Parker	56	56	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.13	10	0	10	17.8	16.2	1.60	15.1	13.0	2.05
Malik Rose	33	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	9	-8	16.1	17.8	-1.68	12.7	15.1	-2.38
Charlie Ward	36	35	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	10	-10	16.2	17.8	-1.60	13.0	15.1	-2.05
Robert Horry	10	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	18	-26	17.5	17.2	0.34	13.3	14.4	-1.13
Devin Brown	43	42	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.14	-12	22	-34	16.7	17.6	-0.93	12.9	15.4	-2.52

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Frank Williams	21	21	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-14	18	16.1	13.7	2.38	17.0	17.2	-0.19
Michael Doleac	47	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-13	16	12.9	15.7	-2.79	17.2	17.2	-0.07
Shandon Anderson	15	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	-5	0	10.2	15.1	-4.87	17.4	17.2	0.24
Moochie Norris	5	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-5	0	11.0	14.5	-3.45	18.4	17.1	1.33
Anfernee Hardaway	55	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-10	10	13.8	14.9	-1.08	17.7	16.4	1.28
Keith Van Horn	35	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-3	-4	14.8	13.9	0.82	16.4	17.7	-1.37
Dikembe Mutombo	35	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-1	-8	15.5	13.5	2.08	16.2	17.8	-1.62
Othella Harrington	48	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-2	-6	15.0	13.5	1.51	18.6	15.7	2.91
Kurt Thomas	52	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	14.0	14.7	-0.71	16.6	18.0	-1.37
Stephon Marbury	86	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-5	0	14.5	11.0	3.45	17.1	18.4	-1.33
Allan Houston	56	57	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.19	-12	2	-14	14.8	13.5	1.31	17.2	17.1	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0	93.8%
CLE 84, ATL 74	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.11,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	93.6%
OKC 118, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.02,0	93.5%