NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	115		Excitement	7.4 [359]		MVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): +25.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	106		Comeback	1.7 [280]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -15.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.15	0.13	0.03	7	82%	0.25	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Kevin Martin	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	18	65%	0.20	4	-0.10	15	100%	0.06
Donte Greene	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	10	57%	0.10	2	-0.05	10	50%	-0.09
Spencer Hawes	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	6	79%	0.14	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	10	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	12	40%	-0.01	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.03	16	57%	0.12	5	-0.13	10	100%	0.07
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	44%	0.04	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.03
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	24	38%	-0.15	0	0.00	12	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.8	34.1	16.5	27.5	2.7	45.0	154.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +75.7%

MEM -4.1%

MEM -27.3%

SAC +2.1%

SAC +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MEM	NBA	SAC	MEM	NBA
this game	14.9	13.4	15.5	112.7	103.9	106.4
season	15.0	16.1		104.0	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.1		107.6	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.5	14.9	16.0	12.5	14.9
MEM	13.5	12.3	14.0	13.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	98	98	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-6	21	14.7	20.2	-5.60	13.4	12.0	1.42
Jason Thompson	82	81	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	14.8	15.0	-0.16	14.4	9.3	5.07
Beno Udrih	72	70	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	1	7	14.8	15.1	-0.32	14.3	11.4	2.85
Donte Greene	39	39	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	-2	13	15.5	14.5	1.08	12.2	14.1	-1.92
Kevin Martin	84	86	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	8	-7	14.6	16.3	-1.71	13.0	15.2	-2.24
Bobby Jackson	77	76	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	14.8	15.1	-0.33	12.3	16.5	-4.21
Spencer Hawes	47	48	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	9	-9	15.3	14.5	0.83	14.4	12.5	1.87
Kenny Thomas	11	12	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	10	-11	16.3	14.7	1.57	9.8	13.8	-4.00

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	45	47	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.19	10	-19	29	11.7	14.7	-3.00	15.0	14.7	0.28
Darrell Arthur	49	46	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-12	15	11.7	14.9	-3.29	15.9	14.0	1.90
Quinton Ross	26	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-9	9	11.5	14.0	-2.45	14.4	15.1	-0.71
Greg Buckner	58	57	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-7	5	12.1	15.0	-2.92	14.7	15.0	-0.31
Marko Jaric	20	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-8	7	12.7	13.5	-0.76	16.1	14.6	1.51
Hakim Warrick	24	26	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.10	-10	1	-11	17.1	12.2	4.87	15.3	14.7	0.58
Mike Conley	82	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.17	-8	-1	-7	13.5	12.7	0.76	14.6	16.1	-1.51
O.J. Mayo	93	93	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.23	-8	-1	-7	13.3	13.6	-0.21	14.6	17.9	-3.31
Marc Gasol	47	46	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.17	-14	5	-19	15.7	11.4	4.26	15.0	14.8	0.23
Rudy Gay	66	65	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	6	-21	14.6	11.0	3.61	14.5	15.5	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.45,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.09,0.1,0.14,0,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, ATL 74	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.11,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	93.2%
IND 102, DEN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.9%
DAL 91, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.23,0.09,0	92.8%